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32 in 32: Buffalo Bills

In our “32 in 32” series, we are highlighting three of the most notable fantasy football players for each team, covering all 32 teams in 32 days!

Josh Allen (QB – Buffalo Bills):

Allen finished the season as the QB2 in points and likely would have led the position in scoring if not for the suspension of the Buffalo/Cincinnati game at the end of 2022 – and that was a down year for Allen, featuring his lowest points and per-game totals since 2019. That shows how dominant Allen has been in fantasy over the last several years. Before 2022, he was the first QB to lead the position in scoring for consecutive seasons since Daunte Culpepper did such from 2002-2004. The only significant point of concern with Allen is how heavily his production stems from rushing – not in from yards, but TDs. He has yet to go a season in his career without 6+ TDs, which is a positive when that is occurring, but is a dangerous thing to rely on with a QB, especially when Allen has come out to say he eventually will start to run less. By no means is it a guarantee that he takes a step back in terms of redzone rushing utilization, but it will happen at some point. Beyond that, you can’t ask for much more out of a fantasy QB – production, consistency (year-to-year and week-to-week), and upside. He perhaps may have an even better situation this year with the Bills investing their 1st round pick on another weapon for him, taking TE Dalton Kincaid in the 2023 Draft. Everything is positive for Allen in terms of his actual prospects, but the price will be far too high as one of the premier fantasy QBs in 2023. QB is by far the deepest (and most easily replaceable) position statistically in fantasy, which makes his price (whether it be in the late-2nd or early-3rd round) far too much to pay for a QB that doesn’t completely separate himself from the rest of the position. I’d recommend passing on Allen for a later (and more price-sensitive) option at the QB position.


James Cook (RB – Buffalo Bills):

Cook was incredibly efficient and showed plenty of flashes of potential as a rookie in 2022, but never truly got an opportunity to take on a significant workload, eclipsing 12 touches just once the entire season. He did start to get more involved as the season progressed, though he never saw the workload of a true starter and was still productive despite a limited workload. Over the entire season, he posted a strong 5.7 YPC and ended the year on a hot streak with 12+ points in three of his final five games to close out his rookie campaign. Unfortunately, the offseason didn’t prove to be overly positive (or negative) for Cook’s 2023 prospects, seeing the Bills swap out Devin Singletary for Damien Harris, retain mid-season acquisition Nyheim Hines, and add Latavius Murray via free agency. Hines’ presence still likely means Cook will occasionally see receiving work but won’t be the primary “receiving back” on 3rd downs. The Singletary-for-Harris swap is more intriguing – it likely means Cook steps into a more pronounced overall role, seeing more early-down work than in 2022, but he won’t see much redzone action with Harris present. Murray is the more concerning back, seeing as they opted to bring in multiple RBs with every-down capabilities, indicating a potential ‘hot hand’ approach to Buffalo’s workload split. He’s projecting at an appropriate price (RB30, late-7th/8th rounder) and I would love to be able to value him higher (due to his tremendous talent), but the situation in Buffalo, between the backfield personnel, Josh Allen’s running tendencies, and the lack of production from Bills’ RBs in years past, all serve as negatives for Cook’s prospects. He’s got potential, especially within a strong offense, but it’s unlikely he reaches that potential outside of injuries and/or a major scheme change this offseason.


Stefon Diggs (WR – Buffalo Bills):

Since arriving in Buffalo, Diggs has established himself among the elite WRs, both in the NFL and fantasy, ranking in the top-7 WRs in points each of his three years in Buffalo. He continued that success in 2022 with an extremely solid 108-catch, 1429-yard, 11-TD campaign where he finished inside the top 4 WRs in PPR scoring. He continues to dominate the Bills’ target share, bringing in 27% of the team’s targets in 2022, and should once again dominate the team in that category, but possibly not to the extent that he has in years past, especially when considering the overall volume of targets. With the Bills’ investment in TE Dalton Kincaid with their 1st round pick this year and seemingly transitioning to a more balanced offensive scheme (with the additions of Damien Harris and Latavius Murray), there is the potential for Diggs to continue his current slide in target volume, dropping each consecutive season since joining Buffalo. By no means is that a certainty (or even a likelihood), but it is definitely a possibility and a thing to be aware of, especially with the potential for Dalton Kincaid to eat into Diggs’ 11 TDs and 20 redzone targets. I like Diggs as a WR1 option – at the right price. It is yet to be seen where he will go as his ADP (1.08) and ECR (2.05) are rather conflicting, but it seems that he will be a mid-to-high WR1 in the WR4-WR6 range off of draft boards. Relative to the position, he’s appropriate value, but I only envision myself considering him on draft day if he’s available in the 2nd round.

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