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Breece Hall's Potential Elite Season in 2023

The New York Jets may have an early contender for 'draft of the decade', selecting the likes of DROY Sauce Gardner (CB) and OROY Garrett Wilson (WR) in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but many are forgetting that RB Breece Hall may have been their best selection, taken 36th overall out of Iowa State.

Hall had a tremendous start to his rookie season, going for 609 total yards (7th) and 4 TDs (6th) through the first 6 weeks of the 2022 season, ranking as the RB6 in PPR scoring. He produced at that level even despite just 95 touches (fewest among top-12 RBs), in part due to a limited role to start his rookie season - seeing just 21 carries through the first three weeks. After he truly took over the lead duties in Week 4, Hall exploded with 279 yards and 3 TDs on 55 carries with 117 receiving yards against teams that posed a negative matchup (PIT, MIA, GB).

Unfortunately, that's where his rookie season pretty much ended (though he did tally 72 yards and a TD on just 4 carries in Week 7), suffering a season-ending ACL tear against Denver. Following Hall's season-ending injury, the Jets' rushing attack was non-existent, ranking 30th in both yards and fantasy points while placing dead-last in rushing attempts. There's no question that once Hall is back, he'll be the workhorse in New York.

Hall's standout rookie season may not be fully recognized, especially in the advanced analytics field where he was off the charts, indicating a potential breakout sophomore campaign. Even with a limited workload to start the season, Hall still ranked as the most consistent top-80 fantasy RB (0.355 CR), one of the most prolific per-game RBs (RB7 in PPG, RB8 in Sig PPG), and among the elite when it came to per-touch production (RB10 in FPPT, 4th in FPPT among RBs with 80+ touches).

Reports indicate Hall looks "fantastic" and is "doing great in his recovery", according to Head Coach Robert Salah and Jets' GM Joe Douglas respectively. That means it appears that the stars are aligning for a potentially elite season for Hall, especially if the Jets can get even average QB play (which they almost certainly get with their newly-acquired QB, Aaron Rodgers).

Currently forecasting as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 option in the 2nd round of drafts (RB13, 2.09 draft price per ECR), I would have zero reservations taking Hall as a mid-to-low RB1 option and would be ecstatic to even have a chance at getting him in the early-to-mid 2nd round as an RB2 that could decide leagues. There is a very realistic chance that Hall replicates his 2022 success prior to his injury and the possibility to exceed that, especially with a greatly improved offense that should present more appealing late-game scenarios and redzone opportunities.


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