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D.K. Metcalf Could be On the Rise after Underwhelming Stretch, Promising Opportunities

This one is for all of the D.K. Metcalf managers out there: has it felt like he’s left a lot of meat on the bone in terms of his fantasy production over his past two games? If your answer is yes, you’re not alone – and based on expected fantasy points per game (which accounts for what a player’s usage would normally correlate to in terms of fantasy points scored), you would be justified in feeling like Metcalf has missed out on some serious opportunity.

There’s a reality where D.K. Metcalf is a weekly fantasy WR1 - unfortunately, that reality I’m talking about is not this one.

Granted, Geno Smith hasn’t been playing at a level as high as he was last season - but Metcalf has had some serious trouble capitalizing in his past two starts. Since Week 6, Metcalf leads the leagues in fantasy points per game under expectation at -11.2. Yes, that’s right - his expected fantasy points per game since Week 6 is twice his actual fantasy points per game (11.3). The next-largest negative discrepancy between fantasy points per game and expected points per game belongs to Christian Watson of the Packers, who sits in 2nd at -8.6.

Part of the problem Metcalf has had capitalizing on his opportunity has been his inability to reel in the end zone targets he’s been delivered from Geno. Despite playing in just two games since Week 6, Metcalf is tied for 2nd among all WRs in that span for end zone targets with four, but has no touchdowns to show for them. He’s also posted just a 39.1% catch rate since Week 6, which has prevented the targets he’s earned from translating into production.

Based on his expected fantasy points, Metcalf could be averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game over his past two games, which would rank as the WR5 from Weeks 6-8. Instead, Metcalf has averaged just 11.3 points per game – placing him as the WR42 in that same span.


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