Week 2 Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrade Zach Charbonnet

Expect Charbonnet to fill Kenneth Walker’s shoes, except without the big play ability. OC Ryan Grubb said that he views their roles are being very similar, so there’s a chance we see Charbonnet on all three downs. The Seahawks are favored by 3.5, so there’s a decent chance Charbs can rack up volume. I have him at RB20 this week.

Upgrade JK Dobbins

We probably have to depend on efficiency again with Dobbins because I don’t think he’ll end up having 20-carry upside. However, this is the week to expect that against the Panthers, who were gashed last week by RBs for 132 yards. With their DT Derrick Brown on IR, the Panthers are short-handed. Gus Edwards is also a flex play if you need one against the Panthers. Expecting 14-16 carries for each of these two RBs with the Chargers favored by 4.5 points.

Upgrade James Conner

He’s at home, his team is favored, and we saw what David Montgomery was able to do against the Rams last Sunday night. Expect Conner to reach 20+ opportunities for the second straight week and be even more efficient against a lesser defense.

Upgrade Brandon Aiyuk

I actually like Deebo a bit more in this game, but I want to call out Aiyuk because I’ve received too many questions about him. He should be in lineups. Aiyuk had to deal with an extremely tough Jets perimeter defense last week but now will only have to deal with Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore, a duo that should not give him much trouble. They allowed the 13th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs last week, and they went up against the Giants. That tells you what you need to know.

Upgrade DK Metcalf

It’s interesting that people are calling Christian Gonzalez someone we need to stay away from. Metcalf’s matchup last week against Patrick Surtain was one I was okay staying away from, but Gonzalez is going into his 6th career game, and was targeted on 32% of routes run against him last year before he got hurt, which was the highest in the league. He gave up almost half a fantasy points per route run against him, also one of the highest in the league. I watched last week against Ja’Marr Chase - he wasn’t the reason Chase didn’t have a big game. I wouldn’t be worrying about this matchup for Metcalf.

Upgrade Chris Godwin

I really like Godwin back in his old role, if you haven’t noticed - this might be super aggressive, but there are several high-end WRs who I don’t love this week, and after a 28% target share week in a new role where we know he’s comfortable, I have him at WR17. When the defense has to pay attention to Mike Evans, and with them unable to stop Cooper Kupp last week out of the slot - I am going to be a little aggressive with Godwin this week.

Upgrade Malik Nabers

Nabers had a solid debut last week amidst a terrible offensive environment, but he has one of the best matchups of any WR this week against the Commanders. Washington allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs last week, and Nabers should be able to take advantage despite Daniel Jones throwing him the football. If you drafted Nabers high, and you don’t start him in this matchup, what was the point?

Upgrade Xavier Worthy

After a hot start in Week 1, and running the same number of routes as Rashee Rice, Andy Reid should be cooking up some stuff for Worthy in Week 2. Now that Hollywood Brown doesn’t seem to be in the picture this season, there’s even more reason to put more on Worthy’s plate. His floor is close to zero, but he’s a good upside WR3 play.

Upgrade Jerome Ford

The Jaguars can be relatively stingy against the run, but Ford is getting almost all of the rushing attempts for the Browns, he’s running a ton of routes, and he earned 18% target share (6 catches on 7 targets) to go with it. Because of his three-down role, he’s immune to game script, and the Jaguars just gave up 9 receptions to the Dolphins in Week 1. With the Jaguars favored by 3, we could see some extra checkdowns going Ford’s way.

Downgrade Jayden Reed

Reed picked up an injury designation (calf/shin) on Friday, which is usually not a great sign. Having Malik Willis as his QB is also not good. Reed makes his plays so many different ways, so I understand wanting him in your lineup, but he doesn’t have the best situation going into Sunday. It is worth noting that the Colts' defense and secondary aren’t good, so I’m not going out of my way to keep him out of my lineup.

Downgrade George Pickens

Pickens did a great job of overcoming a few hurdles last week, one of them being him being on the field on only 76% of Justin Fields’ dropbacks. At least he came through with a 32% target share. This week, he faces shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain. Not fun. I don’t trust the offensive environment, and I can see Surtain shutting him down. I’m looking for another option.

Upgrade Ray-Ray McCloud

Kirk Cousins isn’t moving around, there’s no play-action, there’s no snaps under center - he’s just getting the ball out quickly. McCloud was the 1st read on 29% of pass plays and earned a 27% target share along with 32% of targets per route run. The slot role in this offense was already an interesting one coming into the year. I really hope it doesn’t stick, because we want as many targets to go towards Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but until Cousins is right, we could continue to see a lot of short targets to McCloud and Bijan.

Upgrade Jayden Daniels

The willingness to tuck and run is a big deal for fantasy purposes. He had a 21% scramble rate, which was the highest among all QBs in Week 1. It’s funny that Dan Quinn was talking about wanting him to be more of a thrower of the football, but they did design a rush for him on 36% of plays, which was the highest in the league in Week 1, as well. These are two marks that are extremely correlated to fantasy points at the QB position, so I’m not taking him out of my lineup for other pocket passers after the elite guys. I have him at QB6 this week against a Giants defense that can be exploited.

Upgrade Jared Goff

The Lions have the highest implied total this week, they’re at home in the dome, and Goff now has four weapons in the pass game - St. Brown, LaPorta, Gibbs, and Jameson Williams. The Bucs can be taken advantage of through the air, and Goff has done just that in the playoffs, throwing for 287 yards and 2 TDs.

Upgrade Jordan Mason

Obviously, Mason is the guy now that CMC is out for the next four games, and he should get the volume in this one pretty easily with the 49ers favored by 5.5 points against the Vikings. Mason and that offensive line couldn’t be stopped against the Jets last week. Mason is a solid RB1 play.

Downgrade Zamir White

The Raiders are going into Baltimore to face one of the best defenses in the league, which is playing into the highest implied point spread of the week, in favor of the Ravens of course. In what is being predicted as a negative game script, it will likely be more of what we saw last week with Mattison being the primary back as the Raiders play catch-up.

Downgrade AJ Brown

If we don’t get any more news of his new hamstring injury by Sunday kickoff, I’d consider another option from Sunday rather than going with a complete shot in the dark with a player you pick up Monday night once you hear AJ Brown is inactive. Don’t get CMC’d this week. My guess is that Brown doesn’t play after he practiced in full, got a limited session, then didn’t practice at all on Saturday. If you do wait, Ray-ray McCloud would be an option that is available on all waiver wires.