In our “32 in 32” series, we are highlighting three of the most notable fantasy football players for each team, covering all 32 teams in 32 days!
Aaron Rodgers (QB – New York Jets):
Even despite coming off back-to-back NFL MVPs, 2022 was a very rough season for Rodgers, who struggled mightily without Davante Adams with his worst season-long PPG (14.1) in any season where he was a starter.
It definitively was the worst WR corps in his career and it showed with Rodgers going for under 3,700 yards, 26 passing TDs, and 12 INTs after back-to-back seasons of 4,200+ yards and 40+ TDs. He shockingly failed to hit 20+ points in any game over the season for the first time in his career.
He now sees a move to the New York Jets, seeing a much-improved supporting cast with the likes of Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, and Denzel Mims in his WR group.
Rodgers also gets Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator and play-caller, who has produced excellent fantasy QBs when outside the Head Coach role (as we saw last year in Denver), including two top-13 finishes by Blake Bortles in 3 years alongside Rodgers ranking as a top-10 QB in all 3 seasons with Hackett previously (2x MVP).
This season is the first instance where Rodgers isn’t being drafted as a QB1, falling as a mid-QB2 (QB15 on ECR, QB16 on ADP) to the late-10th/early-11th round in drafts. At that price, within a young and promising offense, I have no issues investing in Rodgers as a low-risk/high-upside QB2 option, especially if you opt to pass on the top-end QBs and land a value option (i.e. Lawrence, Watson, Prescott, Tua, etc.) shortly before him.
Breece Hall (RB – New York Jets):
Hall was selected as the top RB out of the 2022 NFL Draft, going 36th overall after back-to-back seasons of over 1,700 yards and 23 TDs at Iowa State.
It took a bit to get involved with just 21 carries through the first 3 weeks, but after that, he exploded for 396 yards and 3 TDs in negative matchups the next three weeks, leading to him ranking as the RB6 in PPR scoring through the first 6 weeks of the season with 609 total yards (7th) and 4 TDs (6th).
Unfortunately, that’s about where his season ended, suffering an ACL tear the next week after going for 4 carries, 72 yards, and a TD vs Denver. From then on, the Jets rushing attack was 30th in yards, 30th in fantasy points, and dead-last in rushing attempts.
When he does come back, it’s almost certainly in a workhorse role, barring an outside signing. Even with a likely decrease in efficiency via his ACL tear, it’s very likely that he still is a top RB seeing as he already was the most consistent top-80 fantasy RB (0.355 CR) and had elite efficiency (4th in FPPT among RBs with 80+ touches) in 2022.
With a new (and greatly improved) offense with Aaron Rodgers at QB, I’m anticipating more higher-value opportunities for Hall, which should offset a majority of the lingering impacts of his injury. Looking like an early-to-mid 2nd-round pick as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2, I am perfectly fine with that type of investment in one of the best RBs last season in an improving offense with the potential to emerge as a top-5 RB for fantasy.
Garrett Wilson (WR – New York Jets):
Wilson’s coming off a very solid rookie season, even despite horrid QB play, going for 83 catches, 1103 yards, 4 TDs, and a WR20 finish in PPR scoring.
He showed flashes of potential in 2022, going for 17+ points in six games, but ultimately being limited by QB play between Zach Wilson (who had the highest off-target passing percentage), Mike White, and Joe Flacco.
The opportunity is there for him to explode in Year 2, already having seen the workload to be productive with an absurd 147 targets (6th) as a rookie. Now enter Aaron Rodgers and it’s very likely Wilson substantially improves beyond his already promising rookie season.
Projecting as a low-end WR1 option (WR8 on ADP, WR10 on ECR), you’re going to pay the price for Wilson’s potential, likely paying up to a mid-2nd round pick on him. At that point, he’s a bit overpriced for my liking, but the upside is certainly there for him to potentially emerge as a top-5 fantasy WR with Rodgers at QB.