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Don't Panic Sell Puka



PSA: Don’t panic sell Puka Nacua because Cooper Kupp is being activated off the PUP. First off, there’s a report from Diana Russini saying that they want Kupp to be 80-90% healthy when they do activate him for a game - which they haven’t done yet by the way - and she said that they don’t feel like he’s there yet. If that’s true, that would mean it’s possible Kupp doesn’t play this week, and they give him another week or two.


Is it possible he plays this week? Yes. But even in that scenario, Puka Nacua is not going to just go away when Kupp is back. Puka is playing a different role, more of a mix between Kupp and Robert Woods: he’s running almost 70% of his routes on the outside, which doesn’t overlap with what Kupp does. And when a player earns the type of target share Puka has, and has type of production to go along with, that’s usually a good indicator they’re here to stay. It’s like when we thought Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn’t going to continue to kill it because he did it when Swift and Hockenson weren’t on the field.


According to Fantasy Life data, Puka is 3rd among WRs in target share, he’s the WR4 on the year, and he’s the WR5 in expected fantasy points, so he’s not overproducing based on his opportunity. I think the biggest part of his game that will be affected is that he won’t be the first read on as many plays - and that’s what’s likely going to move him down to a WR2. But I don’t see a situation where he’s not a Top-24 WR even when Kupp is back, and given the mystery around a hamstring injury that Kupp needed to see a specialist for, I don’t want to panic sell - but I will package sell to get an every-week WR1 or RB1. Like, can you package him up and get Tony Pollard right now? That might be something I try and do.

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