So the early fantasy draft ADPs just dropped on Underdog, and guys – WHAT are we doing with Brian Thomas being drafted ahead of Malik Nabers? If you haven’t looked already, Brian Thomas is coming off the board as the WR7 – which is absolutely warranted. I mean, if you had Brian Thomas down the stretch of this past fantasy season, you understand why he’s being drafted so high… he was THE fantasy playoffs MVP without a doubt. But we have to be able to set aside recency bias looking ahead to 2025, and the truth is that BTJ has no business being drafted before Malik Nabers.
Malik Nabers led all wide receivers in the NFL, not just rookies, in target share with 35% – Brian Thomas was all the way down at 23%. 46% air yards share, too – that was top 3 in the NFL, while BTJ checks in at 19th. Nabers also led Thomas in missed tackles forced per reception, yards after contact per reception, and, the big one, fantasy points per game.
Nabers also averaged more receiving yards per game than Thomas and almost as many touchdowns. Nabers also had 10 games with double-digit targets compared to just 5 for Thomas, and Thomas didn’t start getting that volume until the receivers around him – Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram – started missing time. Nabers averaged 11 targets a game even with Wan’Dale Robinson earning 8 targets a game himself, too… the Giants offensive scheme isn’t changing going into 2025, so I’m expecting similar numbers for him in Year 2.
Nabers’ target earning profile was absolutely ridiculous last year, and that was with Daniel Jones, Tommy Devito, and Drew Lock under center. The Giants are gonna have a new QB next year either through the draft or free agency, and as soon as we find out who that is, Nabers should see his price increase accordingly. But we know Nabers is QB proof – he just finished as a top-6 fantasy wide receiver as a rookie with bottom-of-the-barrel guys throwing him the ball. His opportunity makes him a candidate to finish as the overall WR1 next season and with a few upgrades around him this offseason, he needs to be drafted ahead of not only Brian Thomas, but I’d go as far as taking him ahead of Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown, too.