Buy RB Kyren Williams, LAR
Kyren Williams has finished outside the top-12 in each of the past three weeks in PPR scoring after five straight weeks of top-12 finishes from Weeks 3-8. He’s scored zero touchdowns during his three-game cold spell despite a 79% rush attempt share, 62% route participation, and averaging 72 rush yards per game.
Williams’ role remains among the best in the league for fantasy running backs, handling 100% of the short down and distance, long down and distance, and 2-minute snaps in each of his past five games. His season-long averages in those departments are all >90%, as well.
Williams also has one of the largest deltas among running backs between his expected fantasy points per game (15.6) and realized fantasy points per game (10.4) over his last three games. That discrepancy points to underperformance in that span, and we can expect Williams to return to a higher level of production given that his role is very much the same as it’s been all year.
Williams draws a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, which could make his current managers antsy given how tough they’ve been against running backs this season (allowing the 6th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position). After that, matchups against the Saints, Bills, and 49ers are all favorable, which could help Williams get back on track to close out the year.
Sell RB D’Andre Swift, CHI
Swift had a solid game against the Packers last week, but it took a 39-yard rushing touchdown to salvage what was otherwise an inefficient day for the Bears’ top back.
Swift had his lowest snap share of the season in Week 11 (54%) in his first game without Shane Waldron as Chicago’s offensive coordinator, conceding valuable work in short down and distance, at the goal line, and in the two-minute drill to RB Roschon Johnson. It follows that Johnson, conversely, posted season highs in snap share (44%) and rush attempts share (34%), while also handling two more carries at the goal line than Swift and playing a clear majority of snaps in short, long-down and distance, and 2-minute snaps.
If this new backfield split in utilization becomes a trend, Swift won’t be the same reliable RB1 he’s been over the past two months. Given the overall struggles of the Bears offense in general and an imposing schedule coming up the rest of the way (matchups against the Vikings and Lions twice apiece in the next five games), as well, Swift could be in for a rough ride to close the season.