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One Target & One Avoid

One player to target: QB Jared Goff

  • Target him as your: High-end QB2

One of the best-kept secrets in fantasy football is the very high level of fantasy production Jared Goff had last season, even after finishing as the overall QB10 in 2022. He might be getting more from the Lions offense than he’s giving to it, but he’s doing more than just being efficient and that’s reflected in his statistics last season.

In the last seven weeks of 2022, Goff scored at least 17 fantasy points five times and finished as a top-7 QB on the week four of those times, as well.

Consider also his absolutely pristine 14:0 TD:INT ratio during that stretch, where he also tied for the second-most 300+ yard passing games among all quarterbacks behind just Patrick Mahomes. His supporting cast has received a significant boost as well for 2023 compared to 2022, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery spearheading a backfield that looks to be the most dynamic Detroit has had in a long time. The Lions also added Sam LaPorta, whose after-the-catch abilities will be a huge boon to Goff’s fantasy production. And let’s not forget to give the Lions offensive line their flowers – Goff is playing behind one of the best units in the league.

So, his supporting cast has improved, he’s shown shades of his 2018 Rams self, and he figures to be one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL after being just that in the latter half of last year. He has to be going inside the Top-10, Top-12 at the absolute lowest, right? Wrong.

He’s the current QB17 (!!!) on Underdog. For reference, that’s six spots and two rounds later than Dak Prescott (QB11) who, despite throwing one more touchdown than Goff from Week 12 on last year, also threw eleven more interceptions. Goff is severely undervalued, and the only thing I can think of that would be anchoring his draft price so low is his name association. He is an ideal target late and can allow you to prioritize skill positions while also offering an extremely solid floor with weekly Top-5 upside.


One player to avoid: QB Jordan Love

With great unknown comes great intrigue, and that’s precisely what Jordan Love brings to the table for fantasy football in 2023. Based purely on NFL experience alone, he’s a rookie signal caller, and outside of Christian Watson and Aaron Jones, he doesn’t have any other weapons that can help ease him into the starting role.

Now, let’s not discount the fact that he’s essentially been Aaron Rodgers’ understudy for the past three years; he’s definitely picked up a thing or two from him in his time in Green Bay. But the odds are that the Packers will be a bottom-16 offense in the NFL in 2023, and without any real tape to analyze, things are just too ambiguous for me to consider making Jordan Love my QB1 or even QB2 for 2023. A brief analysis of the quarterbacks going in the same range as Love also reveals the myriad alternate options available with arguably better floors and upsides at their respective prices:

  • Jared Goff, DET: 11th Round, QB17

  • Derek Carr, NO: 12th Round, QB19

  • Jordan Love, GB: 13th Round, QB20

  • Trey Lance, SF: 16th Round, QB25

  • C.J. Stroud, HOU: 16th Round, QB26

  • Sam Howell, WAS: 17th Round, QB28

  • Desmond Ridder: 18th Round, QB29

Regardless of when you take your QB2 (or in some cases, even your QB1), by the time you reach the 12th round of drafts, it’s going to be considered late. Goff is an ideal QB2, hence his 11th round price, but I’d be happier taking a shot on C.J. Stroud – three rounds later than Jordan Love – than I would be rolling the dice on the Packers QB.

Both of them are essentially rookies, and Stroud is undoubtedly the better prospect slated to play on a similar offense in terms of firepower. Love’s price is far too high, especially considering that we haven’t seen anything close to a true debut performance.


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