top of page

Articles

Week 2 Trade Bait

Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get. If you don't know what the value of your players is, head over to our Trade Charts!


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you - these are our top 5 trade bait pieces based on the "buy-low, sell-high" approach with players highlighted likely to see a decrease in value in the near future due to difficult matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc:



1. Tyler Allgeier - RB, Atlanta Falcons


Well, that wasn't what anyone was expecting... It was a 1A-1B approach for the Falcons' backfield, but it was Tyler Allgeier, not Bijan Robinson, acting as the 1A in the Falcons' backfield and even drawing the goal-line work. Allgeier was surprisingly productive off of his 15 carries, going for 75 yards and 2 goal-line TDs (adding 3-19 via the air) in a 24-point performance.


Now the production (and workload) indicates a likely change in the near future with Robinson leading the backfield in snap share (65% to Allgeier's 54%). It'll still likely be a 1A-1B split going forward, but I'd anticipate it to transition more towards Robinson leading the backfield before becoming a true lead back by season's end.


Allgeier will be productive and offer value, but I do believe now will be the peak of his value on the trade market coming off a 24-point, 2-TD performance. I'd recommend looking to try to move him for a FLEX-worthy option unless you own Robinson as well.

 

2. Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams


I like Williams as a waiver wire add, but he's an add-and-trade player in my eyes as I have zero confidence (or rather certainty) on how the Rams' backfield will look. Williams led in snaps, Akers led in touches, Williams led in yardage, Akers led in opportunity (while it was a 1-score game).


Do I think there is a scenario where Williams takes the reigns as the lead back in Los Angeles and is very productive? Yes, but I don't think there is a high enough likelihood of that scenario coming to fruition to justify holding him relative to what you can probably get on the trade market.


I'm anticipating a true committee-based/hot-hand approach in Los Angeles going forward and with that, comes very inconsistent and uncertain production from the RBs (both Williams and Akers). I'd look to see if you can get fringe-RB2/FLEX value out of Williams on the trade market if you got him from waivers, but if you can't get more than high-RB3 value out of him, I'd say hold.

 

3. Austin Ekeler - RB, Los Angeles Chargers


Let me preface this by saying that by no means am I saying Austin Ekeler will be bad or struggle this year.


I do believe Ekeler will end up being the top-5 RB that we anticipated this season. However, the split between Ekeler and Joshua Kelley is VERY concerning, especially with Kellen Moore's recent history of split backfields (in Dallas) and Ekeler's instance of a reduced workload this season. Ekeler was still the lead back in terms of workload, getting 20 touches (164 yards, 1 TD, 26.4 points), but it was a near-identical split between Ekeler and Kelley in both carries (16-16) and snaps (41-39), which was very alarming with the game script favoring a pass-heavy approach and Kelley's presence as the goal-line back.


I still like Ekeler as a high-RB1, but I am much more concerned about his week-to-week viability with a reduced role and the absence of goal-line work. I'm not going out of my way to sell Ekeler for pennies on the dollar, but I would strongly consider moving him for a similar RB1 (i.e. Bijan Robinson) or even in a slight "downgrade" (i.e. Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb) while upgrading at WR/TE/FLEX.

 

4. Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens


It was a very impressive debut for Zay Flowers in Week 1, going for 9 catches (10 targets), 78 yards, and 17.7 points in PPR scoring while firmly establishing himself as the definitive go-to WR for Lamar Jackson among the trio of Bateman, Beckham, and Flowers. That exceptional Week 1 was driven by an absurd 48% target share - the highest mark in the NFL and the 2nd-highest target share for rookie debuts this century.


There's one issue: that all happened with Mark Andrews out.


This offense looks completely different with Mark Andrews in the lineup instead of Isaiah Likely (1 target, 1 catch, 4 yards in Week 1), and with Andrews in the lineup, Flowers doesn't come close to the workload he saw in Week 1.


I still like Flowers and believe he will smash his late-10th round ADP (10.08) as the WR46 off the board, but I am taking the trade value if it's there, flipping Flowers for low-end WR2/high-end WR3/FLEX value if the opportunity presents itself.

 

5. Tyreek Hill - WR, Miami Dolphins


The same story as Ekeler's applies here: I am not actively selling Hill, especially not for pennies on the dollar, but I will absolutely take a bargain via trade if the opportunity presents itself.


Tyreek Hill is exceptional. He was coming off an elite first season with the Miami Dolphins where he posted over 1,700 yards, 9 TDs, and finished as the WR2 to only Justin Jefferson. He then followed that up with an unreal 15-target, 11-catch, 215-yard, 2-TD, 44.5-point performance in the season opener against Los Angeles.


He won many people their week, but now it may be in their best interest to trade him.


Now, I'm not saying trade him for the sake of trading him or that he will be bad (by any means) this season, but now is likely the most you'll be able to get out of Tyreek Hill on the trade market. We see it every year from him where he has his typical 15-25 point games and one or two 35+ point performances - this is one of them.


Hill is the cornerstone of most rosters, but his monster Week 1 can make your roster that much better for the long run in 2023. If you can, entertain the idea of flipping Hill for another high-end WR1 (i.e. Ja'Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown) AND an upgrade elsewhere in your starting lineup (i.e. RB2, TE, or FLEX). If you can't get that value, don't move him, but if you can, I'd recommend taking advantage of his peak value.


Fantasy championships are never won by one player (unless your name is Alvin Kamara and it's Christmas day) - they are won by a team. Take the better team with a duo of a WR1 + another player (20 PPG + 16 PPG) over Hill + an average starter (24 PPG + 11 PPG) - it'll give you a deeper lineup, better equip you for a stable regular season, and increase your odds at a championship.

Comments


bottom of page