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Week 5 Trade Bait

Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get. If you don't know what the value of your players is, head over to our Trade Charts!


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you - these are our top 5 trade bait pieces based on the "buy-low, sell-high" approach with players highlighted likely to see a decrease in value in the near future due to difficult matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc:



1. Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers


Let's keep this nice and simple: I have zero faith in Najee Harris' ability to produce on a weekly basis, especially going forward over the next several weeks.


Harris has been losing ground to Jaylen Warren over the last few weeks, ceding way to a split backfield with Harris' snap share showing a rather consistent decline since the start of the season (outside of an abnormal blowout game script in Week 1), going 52% to 57% to 50% and now dropping to 49% in Week 4 while Warren has seen the exact opposite trend.


Harris thrives off his workload coming on the ground with Warren taking over as the Steelers' receiving back and commanding 22 of 30 targets between the two while Harris has led the duo 49-25 in carries. With the injuries in the passing game (Pickett, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth), a poor SOS coming up (2nd-worst among RBs over the next 4), and a schedule that screams either playing from behind or poor rushing attack (BAL, LAR, JAX, TEN), it's difficult to envision Harris leading the backfield in either opportunities or production for the foreseeable future as the offense sputters.


An 11.3-point performance isn't anything exceptional, especially off of 15 touches, but Week 4 was the first sign of life from Harris this season as he eclipsed the 7-point threshold for the first time this season. I'm taking what I can get from Najee on the trade market, even if that means selling at low-RB2/FLEX value, especially given the trend in the Steelers' backfield as of late.

 

2. Mark Andrews - TE, Baltimore Ravens


Andrews looks like he'll still be a top-5 TE this season, going for 48 points in three games of action (missing Week 1 to injury), but I have my concerns about his week-to-week stability.


We knew we weren't getting his 23.2% target share that he saw last year with the mass influx of WRs in 2023 (Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman), but I didn't fully anticipate a 21.7% target share with Beckham missing nearly the entirety of Andrews' game time this season (injury early in Week 2).


With such a decline in target share (which will likely drop some more with Beckham returning), that means production will fall on Andrews' ability to find the end zone. He's done such so far, finding the endzone three times in three games (twice in Week 4), but over 47% of his production coming from TDs is a major red flag in my eyes.


I don't hate Andrews by any means going forward, but I am looking to see what I can get out of Andrews after a 25-point, 2-TD performance before Beckham returns. I'm not selling him for peanuts, but I am looking to see what the TE market offers. I'd be comfortable either upgrading (packaging another RB/WR with Andrews to get Kelce) or downgrading for LaPorta (acquiring LaPorta plus a somewhat significant upgrade elsewhere in my lineup) in hopes for a bit more stable week-to-week production.

 

3. A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles


After two down weeks to open the season, A.J. Brown was a major trade target for me. Now, two weeks after that, I am ready to move him after a 9-catch, 175-yard, 2-TD, 39-point performance in Week 4.


For me, it's a combination of getting maximum value out of that monster Week 4 performance (as he's unable to sustain such production), a lack of confidence in how consistently the workload will be distributed to the Eagles' receivers (Brown, Smith, Goedert), and some attention to a worrisome stretch of matchups ahead (10th-worst SOS over the next 4, 3rd-worst SOS over the rest of 2023).


Again, you shouldn't be selling Brown simply for the sake of making a trade, but I would definitely look to see if you can capitalize on likely inflated trade value. I'd see if you can make a 1-for-1 trade to get Keenan Allen (maybe timing it such that you keep Brown for this week, as Allen is on bye) or look to package Brown with an RB/WR in an attempt to acquire an elite WR1/RB1.

 

4. Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos


I may have been wrong - the Denver Broncos' offense may not fully rebound in 2023, as we have seen at least so far. Wilson's been productive (9th in passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs) but a large portion of that has been in garbage time scenarios.


The offensive woes worry me for Sutton, but what concerns me more is that Sutton hasn't been able to notably separate himself from Jerry Jeudy as the definitive "WR1" in Denver, outside of finding the end zone, averaging just a target per game more than Jeudy even despite him still working his way back to 100% from his preseason injury. Sutton's also found the endzone three times in four games - that's fantastic, but outside that, he's been unreliable with 32.3% of his points coming from TDs.


Between the likelihood of TD regression, a very unfavorable upcoming schedule (worst SOS in the next 4, 5th-worst SOS over the rest of 2023), and the likelihood of Marvin Mims becoming more involved as the season progresses, I'm looking to move Sutton for a more stable FLEX option, especially off of back-to-back games with a TD.

 

5. David Montgomery - RB, Detroit Lions


David Montgomery has definitively led the Lions' backfield so far, controlling 70% of the backfield touches in Week 1 and 72% of the backfield touches in Week 4 (after exiting Week 2 and missing Week 3 to injury), and he's been extremely productive - there's no question about that.


My concern goes back to how heavily he is reliant on TDs for production with over half (50.1%) of his production this season coming from scores. He'll undoubtedly have an above-average TD Dependency, as is natural in that role (as we saw with Jamaal Williams in 2022), but his production with TDs makes him a candidate to sell to get a similarly productive RB without such heavy reliance on scoring. The name of the game is removing risk where you can.


I'm taking Montgomery off of a 3-TD, 34-point performance and shopping him for a more stable RB2 option. I think he'll easily be a top-15 RB the remainder of the way in terms of points, but not in terms of value (due to inconsistencies). I'm looking for the value of a more stable RB2, especially with the uncertainty of what the Lions plan to do with Jahmyr Gibbs' workload as the season progresses.

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