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Week 7 Trade Bait

Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get. If you don't know what the value of your players is, head over to our Trade Charts!


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you - these are our top 5 trade bait pieces based on the "buy-low, sell-high" approach with players highlighted likely to see a decrease in value in the near future due to difficult matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc:



1. Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos


To put it bluntly, I simply don't trust the Broncos' offense - and that's after an offseason where I truly expected Denver to get back on track offensively with Sean Payton as HC.


Sutton has been one of the lone bright spots in terms of fantasy production within this offense, ranking as the WR30 through the first six weeks of the season with 25 catches for 275 yards and 4 TDs. If not for finding the end zone in four games this season, he would likely be sitting on the waiver wire (or very close to it) in many leagues.


Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the production that he's seen thus far (at least in terms of TDs) is sustainable. He's got the highest TD Dependency among WRs this season at just over 33% of his points from TDs and is shattering his previous career average TD rate (1 TD per every 17.1 catches) with an absurd TD per every 6.3 catches this year.


He's gotten double-digit points in all but one game this year but has still been far from secure on a week-to-week basis, ranking 35th among WRs in targets, 32nd in catches, and 45th in yards. He's lived off of TDs so far, and coming off another week salvaged by a TD, I'd strongly recommend looking to shop him for more than he's actually worth, potentially getting back a FLEX or WR2 option (with more security).

 

2. Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots


Stevenson had his best game of the season in Week 6, going 10 for 46 and a TD on the ground while adding another 24 yards off 5 catches (6 targets) in an 18-point performance. It was the first time that the Patriots offense showed any resemblance of life this year and I'm looking to sell after it.


My concern doesn't stem from Stevenson (who has been serviceable so far, even despite a horrific schedule to start the season). It stems from the Patriots' offense (or lack thereof) and the emergence of Ezekiel Elliott within the offense over the last few weeks.


Each of the last three weeks, Elliott has seen 40% (or more) of the snaps while Stevenson has taken a step back from a 72+ snap share the first two weeks to failing to eclipse 65% the last three weeks. With Zeke looking like his old self (4.9 YPC, 79-yard TD called back in Week 6) and the schedule softening a bit for New England (in terms of opposing defenses), I'd anticipate more utilization for Zeke as the season progresses.


I don't dislike Stevenson, I'm just very skeptical of the Patriots' offense and backfield split. I'm looking to see if I can get mid-RB2 value out of Stevenson off of his 18-point week.

 

3. Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons


Back-to-back games with 4+ catches and he found the endzone this week? This can't be Kyle Pitts.


Yes, it has been consecutive solid outings for Pitts, posting 7 (on 11 targets) for 87 yards (15.7 points) in Week 5 and 4 (on 6 targets for 43 yards and a TD (14.3 points) in Week 6. It's the first time since his rookie year that he's had consecutive games of 4+ catches or double-digit fantasy points.


I am as big of a believer in Kyle Pitts as a player as anyone, but I have little confidence in his ability to continue this production - not because of him, but because of the offense. The last two weeks have been VERY uncharacteristic of an Arthur Smith, throwing the ball 37+ times for 300+ yards and Desmond Ridder scoring 2 TDs in back-to-back games. That is not the Arthur Smith scheme.


I don't have the confidence this type of offense will remain, especially in terms of passing production from Ridder, and in part with that, I don't have the confidence that Pitts will be able to continue to produce top-5 numbers (at least fairly consistently). I'm looking to sell high on Pitts' back-to-back 14+ point games (and off of a rare TD performance) in an attempt to trade up for a top TE.

 

4. Brian Robinson - RB, Washington Commanders


Neither the volume nor efficiency is there for Robinson at the moment, failing to eclipse 3.2 YPC in any of his last 3 games, registering 12 or fewer touches in three of his last four games, and failing to hit a 60% snap share since Week 1. That comes even with having played the 3rd-easiest schedule among RBs thus far.


Now drawing less-than-ideal matchups (either statistically or in game script) for essentially the remainder of the season, I don't know what type of production you can truly expect out of Robinson if it hasn't already come against easier matchups.


He gets one of his final reasonable matchups this week (New York Giants, 8th-most PPG to RBs), so you could consider holding him another week, but ultimately, I don't want to play that gamble given his lack of production unless he finds the endzone. I'm selling him after yet another abysmal week that was salvaged by a TD.

 

5. Derrick Henry - RB, Tennessee Titans


I was never a fan of Henry's reliance on TDs for production, but I didn't expect myself to also be saying that you can't trust his workload either.


Unfortunately, it looks like we may be in that spot with Henry getting 13 or fewer carries in three of his last four games with rookie Tyjae Spears getting more involved as time goes on. It's now four straight games with at least a 51% snap share for Spears (two of which he out-snapped Henry) while Henry has eclipsed a 60% snap share just once in that timeframe.


Two things saved Henry from an otherwise horrid week: a long 63-yard run and a TD - neither of which are sustainable in the long run, especially in this offense. It's an unappealing outlook for Henry between the increased utilization for Spears, another year of very heavy TD Dependency, and an ugly schedule once he returns from his Week 7 bye, drawing the 3rd-hardest SOS over his next 4 with three bottom-12 matchups in that stretch (ATL, TB, JAX).


I don't dislike Henry and he could easily end up with his typical end-of-season monster run we have become accustomed to, but the writing is on the wall for what could be a steady decline for the RB with the 2nd-most career touches (1,986) among active players. I'd look to see if you can get RB1 value out of Henry off a week severely inflated by a long run and a TD. If the opportunity is there to get a positive trade value, take it - if not, just hold Henry.



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