SELL WR Jahan Dotson, WAS
Chances are you didn’t have him in your lineup two weeks ago when finished as the WR6 on the week with 25 fantasy points, but you might have had him in your lineup this week when he finished as the WR9 on the week with 17. I’m a big Dotson guy, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Dotson’s two best weeks have come with Curtis Samuel either out of the lineup entirely like he was in Week 9 or only playing part of the game like he did in Week 8 when he went down with the foot injury in the first place.
Before that in Weeks 1-7: 16% target share for Dotson, no more than five catches in any of those games, and zero top-24 finishes. Now, Sam Howell has been as advertised - he’s slinging it with 40 or more attempts in four of his past five games. The Commanders are pass first, but not Dotson first when it comes to who’s getting the ball, and even when Dotson does get the ball, he’s just not doing enough with it in his hands. After averaging 4.26 yards after the catch last season, he’s down to 2.38 this season; the same goes for his yards after contact per reception, down from 1.51 in 2022 to 0.85 this year.
With Curtis Samuel potentially returning soon, I wanna move out from a player who had zero value two weeks ago and turn Dotson into something that’s going to help me on a playoff run.
BUY WR Adam Thielen, CAR
Today on “things that won’t happen every week, or very often at all for that matter”: both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders each earning 14+% target share. That’s happened just twice all season, and Thielen is officially on his longest streak of games this season without scoring a touchdown (2 games).
He’s finished as the WR24 and WR42 over the past two weeks, and he has his fewest targets in a game against the Colts and Kenny Moore. Lucky for Thielen, he won’t have to face Kenny Moore every week - he’s got a strong enough track record this season for us to give him the benefit of the doubt after two down performances in the game log. He’s still averaging a 28% target share and 30% air yards share, but he’s definitely worth a heat check to whoever’s got him in your league because the Panthers offense goes as he goes.
He’s got two solid matchups in the next three weeks, but a date with Dallas is less than ideal - who knows though, maybe he can pull a Garrett Wilson and score a long touchdown against Dallas to salvage his day in that one.
BUY QB Lamar Jackson, BAL
Put simply, Lamar is suffering from success. It’s the same phenomenon we saw with Dak Prescott earlier this season against the Giants, Jets, and Patriots when he averaged 12 points per game in three blowout wins. Would you believe that he’s finished outside the top-15 in three out of the past five games? He’s quietly scored just six total touchdowns over the past five games, and he’s the QB16 in that span.
Now, Lamar’s averaging 17 points per game as the QB16, which is pretty damn good - there’s a good chance that whoever has him hasn’t noticed that significant drop in production from the first four weeks when he was averaging just under 22 points per game. But Lamar’s got some matchups on tap in the next few weeks that should be much more competitive than last week’s drubbing against the Seahawks, including games against the Browns, Bengals, and Chargers. Those touchdowns that have been appearing in Gus Edwards’ game log over the past few weeks because of positive game scripts? They should be making their way back over to Lamar’s, and the price for Jackson is as low as it’s going to be moving forward - especially with the trade deadline approaching in a lot of leagues.
If you could turn a Jared Goff or Trevor Lawrence into a Lamar, I’d be really interested in making that upgrade to help put my team over the top to make a run at the playoffs.