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A Legit RB1 Candidate being Selected in the 5th round of your fantasy drafts



Looking to steal a potential RB1 that’s currently being taken outside the top 20? Look no further than rookie running back Breece Hall. He currently is ranked #20 on FantasyPros Half PPR draft rankings.


Before we dive into the specifics of his situation, let’s take a look back at Hall’s college career. The Iowa State product had over 4,500 total yards, 50 TDs, and 80 catches over the course of his 3-year career. He’s led all backs at the collegiate level since 2019 in yards after first contact with a whopping 2,130. The do-it-all back also had a career 33% dominator rating, courtesy of PFF, which is the highest of any rookie RB in this class.


His landing with the Jets may make you feel uneasy, but they are actually the perfect offensive system for Hall. And many may not like to admit this, but those Jets are on the rise. They have a very underrated O-line. Mekhi Becton will hopefully be healthy and they signed Laken Tomlinson this off-season.


On top of this, the Jets deploy a zone-run scheme which fits Hall’s skill set to a tee. He is a powerful yet patient runner that gets better as the play goes on. His 74 missed tackles forced was good for 7th in the nation last year, displaying his elite vision and ability to make defenders miss.


There are a couple of other things that get me super excited about Breece Hall. Last season he had 22 carries of 15+ yards, good for 7th in the nation as well. This attributes to his home-run hitting ability, which is always a huge plus. He is also a very capable receiver, displayed by his 9 yards per reception on 80 career receptions. This will allow him to rack up fantasy points in a hurry.


One concern many are voicing is the presence of Michael Carter. Me... I’m not concerned at all. Carter was decent last year yet nothing spectacular, and would likely be best suited for a change-of-pace role. I’m not going to slander him because I was mildly impressed by his performance, but efficiency stats suggest there was a lot of room for improvement. His True Yards Per Carry sat at 4.1, good for just 37th among RBs and his Breakaway Run Rate was just 3.4% which was 34th among RBs. His Expected Points Added EPA was a brutal -9.2 which was all the way down at 120th. Breece should help improve these numbers drastically.


Now let’s talk about draft capital. Carter was a day 3 selection, which historically does not allow players a consistent fantasy role year over year. Breece Hall on the other hand was an early day 2 pick, which speaks volumes to the role he will likely play. I personally see this split going around 70-30% in Hall’s favor, with Carter grabbing a few carries and some 3rd down work. Hall will have more than enough opportunity for Hall to produce RB1 numbers.


Breece Hall is an electrifying young talent in an offense that is poised for a year 1 breakout. He is going to be the lead back in a scheme that is tailored to fit his style of running. He’s currently being drafted as a low-end RB2, but I would not be surprised one bit if he cracks the top 10-12 RBs his first year and becomes a solid RB1.

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