1. WR Justin Jefferson, MIN
The ideal 1.01. Safety and upside. He won't let you down, and he'll also win you weeks. He had 9 Top-5 finishes last year, the most among WRs, as well as 23 finishes with over 15+ PPR fantasy points over the last two seasons, which was 2nd to Cooper Kupp's 24. He was 2nd to Cooper Kupp in targets/game at 10.8, but with Kupp at 30 years old and Jefferson not even hitting his prime, take the young buck as the first WR off the board.
2. RB Christian McCaffrey, SF
The upside in San Francisco is massive, even with the occasional close-out by Elijah Mitchell. Week winning upside is the name of the game, and CMC has the skills and the offense to justify his price. To fade CMC because of Elijah Mitchell doesn't sit right, especially since it's been extremely tough for Mitchell to stay healthy. A full off-season with this team can allow CMC to reach even new heights in 2023.
When all of San Francisco's weapons were on the field, including the playoffs, CMC earned a 23% target share, which is bonkers for a RB. Run-first system, RB centric, and the QB is targeting you all day.
3. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
86/1046/9 is a pretty good line for a WR right? Well, Chase did that in 12 games. He ended up scoring 2 more TDs in his three playoff games. He was on pace for 123/1482/13.
Chase has a shot at finishing as the overall WR1, and given what he has been able to accomplish in his first two years of his career, the sky is the limit. He wasn't even too efficient last season - only 2.02 YPRR, so if that comes up just a bit, we're looking at a monster season. The fact that he was 4th among WRs in end zone targets and didn't play a full year tells you what you need to know.
Two things are working in his favor compared to Kupp - youth and QB stability. The good news is that he was Joe Burrow's first read 37.3% of the time, which was 2nd in the league only to Davante Adams. And when that happens on a pass-first offense, we're talking big numbers coming.
4. WR Tyreek Hill, MIA
Hill finished 1st in the NFL among WRs with a whopping 3.20 yards/route run among WRs with 100+ targets. Justin Jefferson was the next highest at 2.62. He was also tops in the league alongside Davante Adams in target share with 28.8%, and was also targeted at the highest rate per route - 32% of his routes. Hill can finish as the overall WR1 this season. 7 top-5 finishes last year was 2nd only to Justin Jefferson.
5. RB Tony Pollard, DAL
Pollard finished as the PPR RB9 in fantasy PPR points/game - without the goal line role. Zeke was 2nd among all RBs last year with 19 goal line carries. All of that work is going to Pollard. Zeke's also vacating 231 carries.
This might be a surprise, but Pollard was 1st in yards after contact per attempt among RBs with 150+ attempts last year. He was 10th in TOTAL yards after contact. He was the only RB in the Top-15 who did it on less than 200 carries.
He was breaking away runs like no one else. Best rate of 10+ yard runs, and 2nd best rate of 15+ yard runs. The added element of him in the receiving game is key. He was one of the best pass-catching RBs in 2022. He was 5th in yards/route run among RBs with 50+ targets, only behind known receiving RBs like CMC, Kamara, Swift, and Ekeler.
A goal line role and more volume from an efficient RB on a good offense, who already finished as a RB1.