1. Jalen Hurts, QB - PHI
There's no reason why Jalen Hurts can't build on his extremely impressive 2022 season. We knew the rushing ability was there, but with some help from the addition of AJ Brown, Hurts' passing skills took off to a new level. The Eagles' offense became more balanced after a run-heavy 2021, and Hurts' dual-threat production led him to finish as the overall fantasy QB1.
2. Josh Allen, QB - BUF
Josh Allen was tied with Patrick Mahomes for the most Top-10 finishes last year but had one less Top-2 finish than Mahomes. Allen has had three straight seasons of 35+ passing TDs, two straight seasons of 750+ yards rushing, and he's scored at least 6 rushing TDs in all 5 seasons in his career. The rushing work and goal-line prowess gives Allen the slight edge over Mahomes, and that's allowed him to have 3 straight seasons of 24+ fantasy points in 4-point QB scoring - that's stuff only all-time elite fantasy QBs do.
3. Justin Jefferson, WR - MIN
The ideal 1.01. Safety and upside. He won't let you down, and he'll also win you weeks. He had 9 Top-5 finishes last year, the most among WRs. He had 23 finishes with over 15+ PPR fantasy points over the last two seasons, and that was 2nd to Cooper Kupp's 24. He was 2nd to Cooper Kupp in targets/game at 10.8, but with Kupp at 30 years old and Jefferson not even hitting his prime, take the young buck as the first WR off the board.
4. Patrick Mahomes, QB - KC
I don't understand how Patrick Mahomes was able to do what he did after he lost Tyreek Hill. He threw for 41 TDs and 5250 yards the year after he lost Tyreek! The dude is different. He still has Travis Kelce, and now has a bunch of young WRs vying for time on the field this year. He has thrown 37+ TDs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and he'll occasionally run a TD in. He's not a rushing QB, but he makes up for it by being the best passer in the NFL.
5. Lamar Jackson, QB - BAL
Lamar Jackson is going to go HAM this year. He's healthy, and he has a new OC. Why is that good? While I think Greg Roman was the perfect first offensive coordinator for Lamar Jackson, he's outgrown him. Bringing in Todd Monken is the perfect thing to happen to Lamar, because he can now show his skills in the pass game. Monken has always been a pass-first guy, but I do think this becomes a more balanced offense rather than a pass-first one. The rushing will still be there for Lamar - the designed runs, but we'll see more scrambles - because there will be more drop backs. And now he has weapons, too! Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, OBJ, Isaiah Likely... that's a damn good supporting cast. Lamar has never thrown for more than 3200 yards in a season; if he can now supplement a 1000 yard rushing season with 4000 yards passing? We're looking a fantasy monster.