Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears (12:30 PM ET)
Quarterbacks: Both teams are bottom-5 matchups over the course of the season in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks and bottom-8 over the past four games. Lions QB Jared Goff has had three finishes outside the top-15 over the past four games, while Bears QB Caleb Williams notched his first top-5 finish last week since before the Bears Week 7 bye. Once again, the Lions have the week’s highest implied total (29.5), meaning Goff should be in lineups once again as a fringe QB1, while Caleb Williams looks more the part of a boom/bust QB2 option in a game where Chicago could be chasing points.
Running Backs: David Montgomery’s availability for Thanksgiving is still a question mark, and until he’s officially ruled in or out, Jahmyr Gibbs will have the potential to be ranked as a top-5 option at the position this week. Chicago is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs over the past four games, including the most rushing yards and the third-most rush touchdowns in that span. With an implied total just short of 30 points, Gibbs is a must-start – especially if Montgomery is any kind of limited with his shoulder injury.
Wide Receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown has a tough matchup out of the slot against Kyler Gordon but should be started regardless as a high-end WR1 given the scoring potential for this team. Jameson Williams is a boom/bust WR3, while D.J. Moore ranks as a solid WR2 after last week’s bounce-back game. The Lions have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to receivers on his side, while they’re tough in the slot and on the right side – meaning potentially quiet the game for Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.
Tight Ends: Neither Cole Kmet nor Sam LaPorta stand out in this matchup, but the Lions are allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Kmet earned 10 targets last week and he could see a similarly high workload in his new role under OC Thomas Brown, but the ceiling for the Bears offense remains relatively low. Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze are all ahead of him in the target-earning pecking order as well, making competition for targets hard to win. The same goes for LaPorta, who’s struggling to be a consistent producer in a loaded Lions offense. Both of them rank outside the top 12 options this week.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants (4:30 PM ET)
Quarterbacks: There should hopefully be no reason to have either Cooper Rush or Tommy Devito/Drew Lock in your lineup this week, especially with no teams on bye. Rush has shown that he can throw for plenty of yards, but with limited touchdown equity in the Cowboys' offense, neither of these QBs crack the top 24.
Running Backs: New layers could have been added to the Giants backfield last week with Tyrone Tracy struggling with fumbles once again. He’ll likely see the majority of carries once again, but it may not be a workhorse role for Tracy in what’s been a fantastic matchup for RBs this season (Dallas is allowing the 4th-most fantasy points and 2nd-most touchdowns to the position this year). Meanwhile, Rico Dowdle has locked down the lead role for the Cowboys, but the offense and run game are so anemic that he’s had limited upside all year. He’s a fringe-RB2 start at best even in a solid matchup against the Giants (who are allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs this season).
Wide Receivers: Ceedee Lamb and Malik Nabers have been relegated to nothing more than solid WR2s with their starting quarterbacks injured and released, respectively. It’ll be a volume game for both of them, and each pass catcher is perfectly capable of earning targets (Nabers - 30% target share on the year, Lamb - 27%). A touchdown would be enough to give both players the boost they need to break into WR1 territory, so they have the upside to get there – but in a game with the week’s lowest total (just 37.5), scores could be few and far between.
Tight Ends: Both rooms are relatively barren wastelands at this point with the projections for each offense in the toilet, but Luke Schoonmaker has notched back-to-back top-10 finishes at the position with Jake Ferguson out of the lineup. A short week this week could force Ferguson to miss a second game with his concussion, which would open the door for Schoonmaker (16% target share, 13 PPR points per game) to have a shot at making it three straight. He’s in streaming consideration this week in the deepest leagues.
Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins (8:20 PM ET)
Quarterbacks: Jordan Love hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since Week 6, while Tua Tagovailoa has finished inside the top 10 in each of the past two weeks. That’s come with a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio for Tua, but he now faces a tough Packers defense that’s allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four games and the 6th-fewest all year. Both signal callers are mid-QB2s.
Running Backs: Josh Jacobs has ripped off back-to-back top-5 finishes and scored six touchdowns in the past four games, while De’Von Achane continues to be a force as a top-3 fantasy RB thanks to his dual-threat capability. With both teams being middle-of-the-pack against RBs this season in terms of fantasy points allowed, volume should be the driving factor at Lambeau this Thursday. Jacobs is a top-10 option, while Achane currently sits as my overall RB3.
Wide Receivers: Romeo Doubs is set to miss this game, opening the door for the opportunity to finally meet talent for Dontayvion Wicks. His 26% target rate leads the team by a wide margin, and he’ll have a chance to come off the waiver wire and be inserted right into lineups as a solid WR3/flex play. Meanwhile, The Dolphins’ WR room continues to be overshadowed by TE Jonnu Smith and RB De’Von Achane even after Waddle’s bounce-back performance in Week 12. Both wide receivers are hovering as fringe WR2s in a tough matchup in Green Bay.
Tight Ends: Tucker Kraft needed a touchdown to come through last week, but he’s had some target-earning upside in previous weeks and could capitalize on the increased opportunity now that Doubs is out of the lineup for this game. He’ll be a fringe TE1 start, while Jonnu Smith has cemented himself as a solid to high-end TE1 over the past six weeks (22% target share, 16 points per game).