Week 1 Upgrades and Downgrades

Downgrade Dak Prescott

• The Cowboys are traveling to Cleveland to face one of the best defenses in the NFL, and have an implied total of 19 points as a result, which is the 4th lowest of the week. The Browns allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to QBs last year. I’d be looking for a streaming option - like Justin Fields.

Downgrade Brock Purdy

• I have more confidence in Purdy than Dak because he’s at home, has more weapons, and in a more creative offense, but the matchup is very tough against the Jets, who allowed the 2nd least fantasy point to QBs last season. There could be another option available on the wire.

Upgrade Jared Goff

• He’s at home, he has multiple offensive pieces trending up, and he has a great matchup that has the Lions implied as the top-scoring team of the week. The Rams allowed the 4th most fantasy points to QBs last year, and there isn’t anything to suggest their defense getting better this season.

Upgrade Matthew Stafford

• A lot of the same reasons as Goff - he’s in a dome, and the Rams/Lions game has the highest projected total of the week at 52.5. Stafford went from 12.5 fantasy points/game to 18.7 when he had both Puka and Kupp healthy last year.

Upgrade Terry McLaurin

• Who’s going to steal target share from Terry at this point? Carlon Davis is gone, but even with him last year the Bucs gave up the 8th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs. Expecting a target funnel from Jayden Daniels towards McLaurin in Week 1.

Downgrade Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel

• It’s really hard to sit these two because they can go off in any matchup, but the matchup is pretty tough. The Jets gave up the fewest fantasy points to WRs last year. It is worth noting that the 49ers still have the 7th highest implied total despite the tough matchup. It's also worth noting that Aiyuk could be limited due to the holdout and making sure he's all the way back to normal conditioning, according to Kyle Shanahan.

Upgrade Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Patrick Surtain will likely be shadowing DK Metcalf, which can force Geno to distribute the ball a bit. Broncos nickel corner Ja'Quan McMillian has been a diamond in the rough, but this is a mismatch in coverage. Expecting JSN to have a big role in Ryan Grubb’s offense.

Upgrade Chris Godwin

• Back in the slot, Godwin will be matched up with a promising rookie nickel corner, but a rookie nonetheless. Last year, the Commanders' defense gave up the 5th most fantasy points to slot WRs last year. Expecting more production and efficiency from Godwin with the shift inside.

Upgrade Curtis Samuel

• Samuel has been practicing in full this week, and the expectation is that he will play a flanker role for the Bills. Expecting Josh Allen to carve up the Cardinals’ secondary, a unit that might be the worst in the NFL. Arizona specifically was exploited on the outside last year, giving up the 7th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs.

Upgrade Adonai Mitchell

• AD Mitchell has moved into Josh Downs’ role while he’s been out, and we saw a connection between him and Anthony Richardson in the preseason. He’ll be going up against Jalen Pitre, who is converting from safety to nickel corner after the Texans released Desmond King. Plus matchup for Mitchell.

Upgrade Andre Iosivas

• There’s no guarantee Iosivas can take advantage of the likely absence of Tee Higgins and a possibly limited Ja’Marr Chase, but he has been talked up all off-season as a key part of the Bengals offense. It’s very possible Iosivas gets enough targets for him to come through as a flex play.

Upgrade Justin Fields

• Russell Wilson is not expected to play, so Fields should be considered if you’re starting a lower-end QB1. I’m definitely considering him over Dak and Purdy this week. Regardless of whether he can get it done in the passing game, his rushing ability will give him a safe floor.

Upgrade James Cook

• Arizona’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and with Josh Allen not having a true WR1 can lead to more targets for Cook. There’s a lot of upside for Cook in a game the Bills are heavily favored in.

Upgrade Mike Evans

• Washington’s secondary, particularly their perimeter defense, is one of the worst in the NFL. Evans has a chance to finish top-5 at the position this week.

Upgrade Malik Nabers

• Nabers can make a big splash in Week 1 against an extremely vulnerable Vikings secondary. They haven’t made any improvements on the perimeter, and they were giving up some of the most fantasy points to WRs on the outside last season.