top of page

Articles

Week 10 Trade Bait

Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get. If you don't know what the value of your players is, head over to our Trade Charts!


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you - these are our top 5 trade bait pieces based on the "buy-low, sell-high" approach with players highlighted likely to see a decrease in value in the near future due to difficult matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc:



1. Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Miami Dolphins


This purely comes down to your stance on the Dolphins. I'm very bearish on the fantasy prospects of the Dolphins' offense going forward given their substantial struggles against solid defenses.


It's not ideal to sell a QB off of a 193-yard, 12-point game, but that's where I'm at with Tua.


He's struggled against below-average matchups (16.6 PPG), which is what he'll be dealing with the rest of the way. Not only does he draw both the hardest remaining SOS and the hardest playoff SOS, but they are the hardest by a pretty significant margin. He sees just ONE matchup that ranks outside the top 13 in difficulty the rest of the season and gets a date with Baltimore (7.8 PPG to opposing QBs, lowest) in the fantasy championship.


Tua's been fantastic so far, maybe even the NFL MVP to date this season, but I am not betting on him maintaining his current production with the upcoming gauntlet he faces. I'm looking to move him in a package to trade up for a high-QB1 with a more appealing playoff (and ROS) outlook.

 

2. Gus Edwards - RB, Baltimore Ravens


Edwards' fantasy relevance is hanging on by a thread, once again seeing an otherwise horrific fantasy outing saved by TDs, scoring two goal-line touchdowns again in Week 9.


His 38.7% TD Dependency (6th-worst) is alarming within itself, but when Justice Hill saw 9 more opportunities than him (and out-snapped him 48-14) AND Keaton Mitchell got more work than him (10 touches to Edwards' 5, both with 18.4% snap share), every red flag is up.


If you have Edwards on any roster, I would STRONGLY recommend selling him for any equivalent RB to remove some risk from your roster, especially with the lack of clarity at the moment in the Ravens' backfield and a rough upcoming schedule (5th-hardest remaining, 5th-hardest playoff SOS).

 

3. Raheem Mostert - RB, Miami Dolphins


Similar story to Tua, but a bit more extreme.


Mostert currently sits as the RB2 in fantasy behind only Christian McCaffrey, but he is a MUST-SELL at the moment. Not only is he sitting at an unsustainable 45.7% of his points coming from TDs (2nd-highest), but he has seen his production overwhelmingly inflated against Denver and Carolina, the teams that allow the two most points to opposing RBs.


In Miami's games against Denver and Carolina, Mostert has posted 274 yards, 7 TDs, and 79.4 points - roughly 47% of his production on the year in just two games. Against the rest of his opponents: 13.0 PPG.


Between a more difficult schedule down the stretch, already unsustainable efficiency numbers (TDD), inflated numbers from two amazing matchups, and the impending return of De'Von Achane in Week 11, Mostert should be actively shopped ahead of his bye this week.

 

4. Jahan Dotson - WR, Washington Commanders


Dotson's coming off back-to-back games of 8+ targets, 65+ yards, a TD, and 17+ fantasy points. We're finally seeing what we anticipated from the sophomore WR - but it's unclear if it will remain.


I have some significant doubts if this level of production can be sustained, especially seeing as it came with Washington throwing the ball a combined 97 times the last two weeks and WR Curtis Samuel missing time to injury (15.2% target share prior to Week 8).


I would anticipate a step back from Howell compared to the last few weeks and with the likely return of Samuel soon, plus a horrific schedule to end the year (3rd-hardest remaining SOS, 3rd-hardest playoff SOS), I'm likely trying to find a substitute for Dotson, ideally packaging him in an attempt to trade up for a true WR2 option off of back-to-back solid outings.

 

5. C.J. Stroud - QB, Houston Texans


Similar to CeeDee Lamb of last week, this is STRICTLY a luxury sell for those looking to take advantage of blatant outlier performance and maximize the trade value of a player in an attempt to swing for a high-end option.


Stroud is coming off what likely was the best rookie performance in history, throwing for single-game rookie records in 470 passing yards and 5 TDs (41.8 fantasy points). You're not going to get a bigger performance out of him, that's simply the fact.


If you want to capitalize on his high value, go for it, especially with a rough upcoming schedule (2nd-hardest playoff SOS), it likely would be worthwhile to try and position yourself for a strong end to the season at QB. If you believe Stroud will continue his excellent rookie season that has seen him rank 7th in points and 3rd in PPG, that's perfectly fine as well.


I'm going with the former as I wouldn't feel comfortable with him as my QB1 come playoff time against Cleveland (fewest PPG to QBs) and twice against Tennessee (12th-fewest PPG to QBs). I'm looking to package him with an RB/WR either to move up for a high-QB1 (Jackson, Hurts, Allen) or pairing him with a TE to try and upgrade at a scarce position.

Comments


bottom of page