Week 3 Upgrades and Downgrades

Akers is starting in Joe Mixon’s place this week. I wouldn’t overthink this one. While he did lose a fumble last week, there’s no one else to take the early-down and goal-line touches for a very good Texans offense. Akers has looked good with his opportunity so far in preseason and last week. He’s a low-end RB2 for me against Minnesota.

Without Kenneth Walker last week, Charbonnet played on 96% of snaps for the Seahawks. He could rack up some volume, given the Seahawks are 4.5 favorites at home, and it could come with efficiency, given Miami has given up 5 yards per carry to RBs over the first two weeks.

I know, a no-brainer, but I’ve seen too many Aiyuk questions this week. Not only is every other 49ers receiving weapon banged up, but the Rams have given up the most fantasy points to perimeter WRs over the first two weeks of the season.

The Packers have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs through two weeks, and Ridley has run 85% of his routes from the outside this year so far. Ridley has control of 24% of targets and 60% of air yards, while Levis showed enough improvement to give him a solid 83% catchable target rate last week.

Higgins is expected to play, and even if he’s less than 100%, he’ll be in my lineup against a Commanders defense giving up the most fantasy points and TDs to opposing WRs.

Iosivas will likely move into the slot primarily if Higgins were to play, so if you’re looking for an upside dart throw, you might as well go with the guy who caught two TDs last week and is going up against a Commanders defense giving up the most fantasy points to slot WRs through two weeks.

Diontae Johnson should continue to lead in target share and is a low-end WR3 for me with a capable thrower in Andy Dalton this week. If you’re really desperate, Adam Thielen has a good matchup out of the slot against a Raiders defense giving up the 5th most fantasy points to slot WRs so far through two weeks.

He’s my YOLO start of the week - either 0 points or 20, nothing in between. Whittington shined in the preseason, is playing the slot role vacated by Kupp, and his 15% targets/route run was first between him, Demarcus Robinson, and Tyler Johnson. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to slot WRs over the last two weeks.

It could also be Jalen Tolbert after his big game last week, but Cooks is still the guy I’d bet on as the Cowboys WR2. They go up against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL and the 3rd most fantasy points to perimeter WRs through two weeks.

Another week without Keenan Allen, but a better matchup this time. The Colts have a beat-up secondary, and they allowed Malik Willis to have a better day than most defenses would’ve let him. Moore has a 30% target share through two weeks, and it should turn into more than solid production in Week 3. The Colts have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to perimeter WRs over the first two weeks of the season.

Too many Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed questions in the comments. The Saints have the 3rd highest implied total for the week, so there is a lot of scoring expected. Olave had a 40% target share last week and had an amazing catch that was inches away from a TD. Shaheed’s 24% target share along with the variety of routes he’s running makes him a much less volatile player than expected. The Eagles have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs over the first two weeks.

On paper, it doesn’t look like a great matchup with Miami giving up the 7th fewest fantasy points to WRs, but they’ve been vulnerable out of the slot, giving up the 13th most fantasy points to slot WRs over the first two weeks. After JSN’s breakout last week, we can see that momentum continue while attacking a potential vulnerability in Miami’s defense.

The Bills have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs over the first two weeks, and they also are really good at limiting the big play, which is what BTJ’s calling card is, at least right now.

This game is set to be one of the slowest and run-heavy contests, with the result of that being a low-scoring slate. With Justin Herbert also out potentially, it’s tough to get a feel for whether the Chargers offense will be able to move the ball against a tough run defense. Ladd McConkey does have a good matchup out of the slot, but I’ll only consider him if Herbert plays.