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Week 6 Buys & Sells


SELL WR DeAndre Hopkins, TEN


He’s a screaming sell after having by far his best game in a Titans uniform. What was the number one issue we had with Hopkins going to Tennessee coming into the season? It wasn’t his talent or his ability to demand targets - he did that in Houston, he did it in Arizona, and surprise surprise, he’s doing it again with the Titans. The problem is that the Titans are one of the least, if not the least, fantasy conducive passing offenses in the league.


I mean, it’s not rocket science to see that he’s suffering because of his situation: the guy has a 30% target share on the season, 43% air yards share, and 29% targets per route run, but just one top-35 performance to show for it - this past week against the exploitable Colts secondary.


Data gathered by Dwain McFarland over at fantasy life tells us that a 25% target share and 31% air yards share is indicative of WR1 production, and Hopkins is blowing those out of the water - so what gives? The truth is, a 30% target share in Tennessee is a lot different from a 30% target share in Minnesota, like Justin Jefferson has, or a 30% target share on the Chargers, like Keenan Allen has. Before last week, he had catch totals of 4, 3, and 4 in his past three games.


And these next three weeks? Tough matchup against Baltimore in Week 6, a bye in week 7, and another tough matchup against Atlanta in Week 8. Capitalize on his value and go chase a better receiver in a better situation, even if you have to package him up with a side piece to do it.


BUY RB Kyren Williams


The awesome thing about this guy is that even when he has a bad week, the utilization is still really good to the point that you don’t feel that bad about the low production. I mean, how successful did we expect Kyren Williams to be in a game against a tough Eagles front and in a game where they were playing from behind? If Williams would have scored a touchdown, there wouldn’t be an opening to buy him this week going into a solid stretch of games that features two back-to-back matchups against teams inside the top-12 for most points allowed to the position (Arizona this week is allowing the 4th-most to RBs, by the way - the Rams play them this week).


He’s still got a stranglehold on the work in the backfield, and he took a season-high 92% of the team’s RB carries against the Eagles while also putting up a 76% route participation - so nothing’s changed from a utilization standpoint. But two quiet games out of three since Week 3 could be enough to give his current manager cold feet, and you can take advantage of that if they’re open to selling.


SELL TE Dalton Schultz, HOU


Boy, did Schultz do you a solid or what by coming through two weeks in a row? He’s been the PPR tight end 4 and 5 in Weeks 4 and 5 oddly enough, and he’s also scored in both games.


The difference between the two finishes? He saw just three targets in Week 4, but 10 targets in Week 5. That’s great, and if you look at his game log on fantasy life’s utilization report, 40% targets per route run and 33% target share in Week 5 look really good, too. But those stats are pulled out of context, and when we consider how he got to that production and utilization, suddenly things don’t look as good.


He wasn’t seeing a route participation nearly high enough to be in the conversation as a weekly option at tight end through Weeks 1-4 – just 68%. His target share, too, was way too low at just 11% - not good. Now, he did see a 71% route participation in Week 5 - but that was with Tank Dell out of the lineup for most of the game (and Dell had a 17% target share in the games he was healthy for and played all the way through).


Dell should only be out at max a week with his concussion, at which point he’ll jump back into the lineup and probably tank your Schultz stock. I’m selling high on a player that had no value two weeks ago, but thanks to back to back performances with a score, can be moved as a legit asset with value today.

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