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AFC North Overproduction



The AFC North is home to four teams all currently in playoff position as things stand today, as well as home to two drastically overperforming fantasy running backs since Week 7. Ravens RB Gus Edwards and Browns RB Kareem Hunt find themselves in just about the same position as each other heading into Week 10, having each scored 4+ touchdowns in a three-game span while fighting to stay relevant in crowded backfields. Those touchdowns have been good enough to keep them on the map, but that touchdown dependence simply isn’t sustainable in the long run, especially with other talented runners challenging for snaps moving forward.


When you look up the definition of touchdown dependence, this is the graphic that appears in the dictionary.

Since Week 7, Gus Edwards and Kareem Hunt are the only two running backs with 35 or more carries to score a touchdown on higher than 10% of their carries. Edwards’ two touchdowns last week are especially misleading, as the Ravens RB handled just five carries on the day despite a box score fantasy point total of 17.2 points. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt has negated his low yards per carry (3.26 - 20th out of 24 RBs) with four touchdowns of his own.


The most concerning developments for both veteran running backs, though, are the emergences of younger talent behind them in their respective offenses. Jerome Ford was back to full health in Week 9 and handled a majority of the opportunities in Cleveland’s backfield, while rookie RB Keaton Mitchell in Baltimore just hung 138 rushing yards and a touchdown on one of the league’s foremost run defenses against Seattle. Both could see expanded roles down the stretch, making both Edwards and Hunt screaming sells ahead of the fantasy football trade deadline.

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