Can Dak Prescott Bounce Back in 2025?

We’re wandering into uncharted waters with Dak heading into 2025: under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys ranked top-10 in passing attempts in four of his five years – the lone exception being in 2022 when Prescott missed 6 games. Prescott also missed 8+ games in 2020 and 2024, but in his two fully healthy seasons, Prescott was able to finish as the overall QB8 (2021) and QB3 (2023). Here, we see that high passing volume + limited/very limited rushing ability can still = Strong QB1 finishes (assuming Dak is healthy). That changes a bit with Brian Schottenheimer taking over playcalling for Dallas:

Assuming that the high passing volume and efficiency is what made Prescott viable as a fantasy starter, which is a safe assumption, we could see that ripped out from under him this year. Brian Schottenheimer has ranked outside the top half of the league in pass attempts every year he’s called plays besides in 2008 with the Jets (13th in pass rate). The last time we saw Dak in an offense that didn’t throw the ball at a high rate was at the beginning of his career from 2016-2018: Dallas ranked 30th, 29th, and 21st in pass attempts in ‘16, ‘17, and ‘18, respectively. He still finished as the overall QB7, QB10, and QB14 in those years, though, and that was thanks to his rushing production: He had at least 280 yards and six TDs each season on the ground in that span. Dak has failed to top 150 yards on the ground in three of his past five seasons, so unlike those first few seasons, there won’t be rushing production that we can count on with Dak in 2025. Less pass attempts + little to no rushing upside = likely finish outside the top end of fantasy QBs.

That being said, the addition of Pickens does constitute and upgrade for Dak and could help him a bit, but an increase in the quality of his playmakers probably isn’t enough to overcome a change in offensive philosophy. Dallas drafted one skill position in this year’s draft: Jaydon Blue, RB from Texas. Their first round pick, an IOL Tyler Booker, suggests that Dallas wants to lean on the run game. Pickens doesn’t move the needle for Dak, and unless Schottenheimer does a full 180 and winds up being a pass-first playcaller after 15+ years of doing the opposite, he won’t have the luxury of a high number of pass attempts (or the threat of using his legs to score) to assure us that he can get back to his strong QB1 ways.