Current Dynasty Buys and Sells

Note: This page will be updated at the beginning of every month.

Current Buys

Breece Hall

This is not a cheap buy by any means. He’s one of the most expensive RBs you can buy, but you’re not buying at his ceiling. His ceiling is coming, and if you want a RB who can go nuclear for the next year or two, he’s the RB to get to put your contending team over the top.

He was up and down last season, so he doesn’t necessarily have that elite season on his resume for non-competing dynasty teams to keep him that close to the chest. He still doesn’t have a 1000-yard season.

With a healthy Aaron Rodgers running a much more capable offense, we could see a 2000-yard season out of Hall. The fact that he racked up 76 receptions last year was incredible, and while some may think it was a result of QBs checking it down, it was more than that. He accounted for a higher target share and more first down receptions than all RBs not named CMC, and no RB totaled more yards/route run than Hall (among 16 RBs with 60+ targets). 

We focus on the receiving game because targets are almost 3x as valuable as carries in PPR, and 1.7x as valuable in half-PPR. But despite the terrible o-line last year, he was 2nd in yards after contact per attempt among the 25 RBs who had 200+ carries last year. He still averaged 4.5 yards per carry, and no RB had any business doing that on 200+ carries behind that o-line on that offense. The big plays were there, as well - he had the highest percentage of his rushing yards on big plays. He did all of this one year post-ACL injury.

He’s going to be two years removed from his ACL this season on a better offense with a better offensive line, so while we might be buying high, we’re buying a league winner for those competing teams that need that extra oomph to get them over the top.

What to send:

SF 2024 rookie 1.08 + 40+ dynasty value points

Non-SF 2024 rookie 1.04 + 40+ dynasty value points

Anthony Richardson

Buying Richardson in superflex isn’t the easiest thing to do right now. The cat’s kind of out of the bag, but let me explain why it is, and maybe you can throw some offers out for him in non-SF. You probably will have to overpay for him in SF, but the payout if you hit can be enormous.

I’ll admit, while I was aware of Richardson’s upside, I wasn’t completely sold that he’d come in and be good enough in the pass game in the NFL right away to make him a high-end fantasy QB1 right away. It’s a tall ask… but he was exactly that as soon as he stepped foot on the field.

I’m expecting Michael Pittman to either get tagged or signed to a long-term deal, with the latter being something I’d be surprised Indy doesn’t do. He’s a baller, and a true alpha WR1, and he’s proven that at this point - especially this past season in a non-ideal situation.

Back to Richardson. He was #1 among all QBs in fantasy points per dropback and per opportunity (includes designed rushes, too). Only 2.4% of his throws were deemed turnover-worthy (according to FantasyPoints.com) - Kirk Cousins was at 2.3%, CJ Stroud was at 2%, Jared Goff was at 2% - just for some context.

While he passed the ball better than I thought he would to start, there is some serious room to grow in the passing department. He ranked 4th-worst among qualifying QBs in off-target throws, he ranked 38th in accurate throw percentage, 45th in adjusted completion percentage, while he depending on big plays to make things happen - he was 14th in big-throw percentage. With all that being said, we’ve seen QBs who are liabilities in the passing game - Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields… become really good fantasy QBs, and we’ve also seen someone like Hurts take that next step forward with some time.

Marquise Brown

This is a great time to buy Hollywood because he left a bad taste in all of our mouths at the end of last season. He was supposed to be this Godsend of a fantasy WR once Kyler Murray took over again, but he didn’t come through. First two games with Kyler back, he combined for 3 catches for 46 yards. Third game - 12 targets, 6 catches, 88 yards. Solid. Next game, heel injury, and he was pretty much done for the rest of the year.

Before Kyler though, he earned a 29% target share. In 2022, 24% target share. In 2021 with Baltimore, 26% target share. As a rookie in 2020, 27% target share. This dude is a target earner, and should be treated as such. He’s undervalued right now, and you can probably buy him with a borderline rookie 1st rounder max this year. You might even be able to get him cheaper… Also, don’t worry about which team he lands with; he’ll be a target earner there, too. Those types of target shares on a good offense that passes a decent amount can lead to WR1 numbers.

Trey McBride

It’s not going to be easy to land McBride in dynasty, I know. But if you want your next top TE1 for the next several years, and you don’t want to play that musical chairs game, go get him. He’s worth that first round pick, and yes, he’s worth giving up incoming stud prospect Brock Bowers for - because he’s already proved that he can earn targets and perform in the NFL in his second year. So yes, McBride is worth a later mid to late 1st round pick+ in rookie drafts.

Six tight ends saw 100+ targets last year; McBride was the only one to go above 2 yards/route run - that’s above Kelce, above Hock, above LaPorta.

The ability to earn targets is a skill. Just because there is a lack of talent around someone doesn’t mean the jury is still out on whether they’ll maintain a high target share. If a player doesn’t deserve a high target share, the targets tend to be much wider distributed than being centralized around one player.

After getting a full-time role in Week 8, he received a 29% target share, and that was with 3 different QBs. 40% from Josh Dobbs, 28% from Clayton Tune, and then 28% from Kyler the rest of the way. Overpay if you have to - he was a good prospect, and now he’s proving he’s the guy as either the 1a or 1b at the top of the TE throne in dynasty.

Chris Olave

It was an up and down ride for Olave, who we had very high expectations for going into 2023. As inconsistent as it was, I think we can agree that most of the blame had to do with Derek Carr. The second on the totem pole for blame can be towards the play design. Olave was running a ton of vertical routes, which is awesome because we like big plays, but we need more “layup” routes, like WR guru Matt Harmon says. Here’s a video of what Harmon says about Olave’s 2023 season:

The good news? New OC, new playcaller in Klint Kubiak, straight from being the 49ers passing game coordinator last year. We should expect more of those easy routes, which would allow Olave to become more consistent - with more receptions and higher percentage throws coming his way.

Still, two 1000 yard seasons under his belt during his first two seasons. Over 2 yards/route run each of his first two seasons.

There’s still a question around who his QB will be, but even if it’s Carr again (they restructured his deal), I’m totally fine with Olave in 2024 with new play design and play calling. Treat Olave as a future elite and perennial fantasy WR1.

Current Sells

Rachaad White

This is a great time to sell White because of how good he was for fantasy last season. The problem was that it seems like it was all based on opportunity. There have been RBs who have been given opportunity who have produced for fantasy. I will say that White isf a plus in the receiving game, so he has that going for him, but I can totally see the Bucs coming taking some work away in the run game next year. His HC Todd Bowles said that he’ll like that to happen: https://x.com/PewterReport/status/1762559076905677298?s=20.

Here’s why I think it’ll happen - because he wasn’t efficient on the ground. Here’s where White ranks in all the metrics that matter, and don’t use offensive line as an excuse, because besides YPC, these somewhat account for that:

Rush yards over expectation/attempt: 0.41 (6th worst)

Yards after contact/attempt: 2.53 (4th worst)

Missed tackles forced/attempt: 0.14 (5th worst)

Yards/attempt: 3.6 (2nd worst)

After a RB6(!) finish in fantasy, you can get a nice haul for White. Remember, I was a fan of White coming out of college. I thought his receiving skills could allow him the cushion to improve in the run game, but I didn’t see the improvement in Year 2 that I hoped I would see.

Raheem Mostert

I get upset when people don’t agree with this one. And I’m including him here because more people disagree with this one than I thought. I get riding Derrick Henry ‘til the wheels fall off (I’m selling him too if I can), but this is Mostert. Last year was an outlier season, and it’s our responsibility to recognize these types of season, especially considering this was Mostert’s peak year; a peak year for a RB at age 31 has happened only 4 times before him since 2000.

At the ripe age of 31, he had a 1000-yard 18 TD season. The last time a 31-year old RB had 10+ rusing TDs in a season was Thomas Jones (14) for the Jets in 2009. The fantasy RB3 in FPPG. Got you to the fantasy playoffs. Good memories if you had him. Sell him now before he turns into a pumpkin. Sell him for whatever you can. Find that competing team that needs RBs; they will be the only team willing to buy.

He’s turning 32 before the NFL Draft. The only 32-year old RBs since 2000 who have had 1000+ yard seasons were Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Ricky Williams, and Emmitt Smith. Don’t you dare put Mostert in that category, especially when they have De’Von Achane ready to take the reins next season. If you’re asking why anything would change in Miami, you’re betting against history, you’re betting against Achane’s ability, and you’re missing an opportunity to sell high.

When you’re selling Mostert, make sure to use all of his efficiency metrics to make your trade partner believe that Mostert still has it and will continue to do his thing.

Rushing yards over expectation/attempt: 0.61 (8th)

Missed tackles forced/attempt: 0.25 (6th)

Yards after contact/attempt: 3.4 (6th)

Nick Chubb

This one makes me sad, but it’s time. He just had surgery for both his ACL (not a complete tear) and MCL, he’s past the age apex (see articles below), and he’s nearing the 1500-carry threshold (he’s at 1238 now).

The fact that he’s rehabbing this injury coming into his age-28 season doesn’t sit well with me, and I want to get out while I can. You can still get a ton of Chubb, because it’s hard to see him hit that wall because he's… Nick Chubb. I will say that he is made up of the type of stuff that Derrick Henry is made of; I would not be surprised if someone like Chubb is the exception to the rule… but I will also not make those subjective predictions. They only become exceptions after it happens.

Also, Chubb isn’t a pass catcher. There aren’t too many outs for him outside of him dominating in the run game. I think it’s time to collect.

More on RB/WR/TE age cliffs: https://www.upperhandfantasy.com/post/dynasty-age-peaks-and-cliffs-for-each-position.

Aaron Jones

If you take a look at the Fantasy Life article linked above, you’ll see that it’s rare that there are high-performing RBs past age 28. Aaron Jones turned 29 in December, and instead of being intrigued by his late season and playoff performances, I’d use that to sell him - I mean, look at how much he has in the tank… wink wink.

With AJ Dillon turning into a pumpkin and Aaron Jones getting old, the Packers will likely look to the draft or free agency to bring in another RB. More competition will be a bump in the road for Aaron Jones regardless.

In terms of efficiency, Jones was solid last year, so make sure to use that to your advantage. Among the 49 RBs with 100+ carries last year, he ranked 10th in yards after contact/attempt and 26th in missed tackles forced/attempt. In terms of rushing yards over expectation/attempt, he was middle of the pack.

I realize that in more advanced dynasty circles, Jones is not an easy sell, and he might be a throw-in. But I rather get some value out of Jones while I can, even if it means I can move on and get a slightly better return on a trade involving more long term fantasy assets.

Keenan Allen

For years, I’ve been defending Keenan Allen against the injury-prone tag. He never deserved it. His last two seasons, though, he’s played 10 of 17 and 13 of 17 - is he now injury prone? No, he’s old. He’s turning 32 years old the week of the NFL Draft.

There’s no doubt that he still got something left in the tank; when he was on the field, he killed it. Overall fantasy WR3 in PPR PPG last season. When he came back from his hamstring injury in Week 11, he was the overall WR3 in PPR PPG the rest of the way.

Use this to your advantage and sell while you can. And to top it off, Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to continue to sling it when you’re up or in neutral situations. And then you add Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator and play caller? This will not be a pass-first offense, despite Justin Herbert behind center.

Move on from Allen now while you have a chance - before the overall pass volume goes down and his age really catches up to him.

Alvin Kamara

Kamara has reached his last days as a high-end fantasy RB. He's going into his age-29 season, and Kendre Miller is awaiting. Not only that, he showed career low efficiency this past season. There were only three players worse than Kamara in rushing yards over expectation last year - Dameon Pierce, Kareem Hunt, and Jamaal Williams... not pretty.

There were only three players worse in missed tackles forced/attempt, and three players worse in yards after contact/attempt. He's still a plus in the receiving game, but at this age, there will likely be a change at the top in terms of the run game.

The good news is that Kamara had such a good fantasy season that he's still holding onto some value in dynasty.

Slow start for Miller, especially with the injuries, but once he got his opportunity in Week 18, he looked very good - 13 carries for 73 yards and a TD. He was a very good prospect, and I can see him taking opportunity away from Kamara this year. He's a buy, by the way. You can see all of our buys and sells on our dynasty trade chart.

And no, it won't be Jamaal Williams. He consistently ranked last or next to last in every category we care about, including dead last in rushing yards over expectation.