First of all, I am not overly concerned about the time off.
His Player’s Tribune article convinced me he’s in great shape, and he’s ready to go. Read it. There can be some rust to shake off initially, but we can’t deny the high-end WR he was before his suspension.
Since 2000, Ridley ranks 13th best among WRs who had the best 3-year stretch to start their careers.
There’s a reason to bet on him returning to form. He was one of the best route runners and separators in the NFL. He should distance himself as the #1 WR ahead of both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. His target share has been above 25% each of his last two seasons. 23-25% target share would put him between 135 and 150 targets.
Ridley’s current ADP on Underdog is the WR19 off the board in the early 4th round, and Kirk is going off the board about a round later. I’m ok with Ridley there, but Kirk seems to be overpriced as it currently stands.
Evan Engram is back on the franchise tag, but his target share might suffer as a result of this addition. He was inefficient last year, and I don’t think it’s worth chasing last year’s production.
Trevor Lawrence has a chance of taking a big step forward with this addition. He has the weapons, he has Doug Pederson. 2023 has to be his year.
The Jags offense as a whole has a chance to be a very fantasy-friendly offense in 2023.