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Ranking WRs At The 1-2 Turn



Garrett Wilson - Faraz’s WR6


Garrett Wilson is already going in the 2nd round of 2023 fantasy drafts, and it's warranted.


He led a very good rookie class in receiving yards last year; his 1103 yards 7th most among rookie WRs since 2000. According to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, he had the best success rate against man and press coverage among all rookie WRs last season. You saw his QB situation last year. It wasn't pretty. But it was actually only Zach Wilson who was his kryptonite...


Without Zach behind center, Garrett averaged 17.29 PPR fantasy points/game - those are WR1 numbers. With Mike White and Joe Flacco. Now you have Aaron Rodgers coming to town, who was able to propel a less polished rookie in Christian Watson to WR1 numbers in the 2nd half of last year.


The 2nd round price tag seems steep, but Wilson is a sharp pick. All Rodgers needs is a WR who can separate with the best of 'em, and Wilson is that guy.


Ceedee Lamb - Faraz’s WR7


With OC Kellen Moore leaving for LA, there has been some worry that the Cowboys offense would go run-heavy. I don't think that's the case, given how they're set up. Mike McCarthy might be talking like he wants to run the ball more, but if Tony Pollard is your lead RB, and you have CeeDee, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup as your 3 WRs, you're probably going to be pass-heavy - just like how how you were your entire career in Green Bay.


In 10 of McCarthy's 12 seasons as play caller in Green Bay, he was in teh top-half of the league in pass attempts, and 11 of those years he was top-10 in passing yards. And yes, that was with Aaron Rodgers, but the mentality should stay true. CeeDee


Lamb is the clear alpha in Dallas, and while some might not want to put him near the elite WR stratosphere, this year can prove the doubters wrong. Lamb had 11 games of 15+ PPR fantasy points last season, which ranked 3rd behind Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. He was 9th in yards/route run, 4th in target share (27.3%), 5th in targets/route run (28%), and 9th in air yards share (38.6%).


The addition of Cooks improves the offense, and Lamb should maintain elite target share and opportunity going into 2023. If he continues to run primarily out of the slot, he's unguardable.


A.J. Brown - Faraz’s WR8


AJ Brown had an amazing season in his first year in Philadelphia, and proved that he belongs in the upper echelon of NFL WRs.


Among WRs with 100+ targets, he was tied for 3rd behind Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson with 2.59 yards/route run, and when you combine that with his 25.4% target share and 41% air yards share (7th in NFL), it screams elite WR.


The downsides for Brown are that he doesn't play in a pass-heavy offense, and he has a serious target earner right behind him in Devonta Smith. Smith earned a 25% target share to Browns' 26%, but Brown was the clear leader in targets downfield, which gives him a sizable edge over Smith (31% air yards share). Brown was also the first read on 32% of team pass attempts compared to 29% for Smith.


Another thing to keep in mind with AJ Brown is there could be a slight regression coming - the dude hit almost 1500 receiving yards on only 88 receptions. Any WR who hit 1400 yards last year did it with 100+ receptions. It made sense that he ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per target over expectation last year, only 2nd to Jaylen Waddle.


Davante Adams - Faraz’s WR9


A lot of question marks around Jimmy Garoppolo are leading many, including me, to doubt Davante Adams' fantasy upside in 2023. I feel like I'm making a mistake by doubting him. He's still at the top of his game, and Jimmy G is avoiding starting training camp on the PUP.


There are matches in Jimmy G's game that fits with Adams - the only potential downside is less targets down the field. But man, Adams was that dude last year - don't just remember the few games where he didn't come through for you. 6th in yards/route run, 1st in target share, 4th in targets/route run, 4th in air yards share, and was the 1st read on 38.5% of Raiders' pass plays, which was also 1st in the league - that's not changing QB to QB. The plays are designed the way they are for a reason.


There is some risk to Adams in case a) Jimmy G can't stay healthy and b) the Raiders are absolutely terrible and there's a late-season "injury" that prevents Adams from finishing the season, but other than that, he's hard to bet against. Even having him here seems too low.

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