Week 6 Upgrades and Downgrades

Start Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams has now thrown for 300+ passing yards and 2 TDs twice now in the last three weeks, and he can do it again against a Jaguars defense giving up 300 passing yards (2nd worst) and 2 passing TDs per game (3rd worst).

Start Tony Pollard

Coming off the bye, and also with Will Levis as your QB, the Titans game plan will likely be to run the ball against a Colts defense allowing the 3rd most rushing yards, the 7th most receptions, and the 5th most receiving yards per game to RBs. Even with Tyjae Spears involved last game, Pollard had 24 touches himself.

Start Tyrone Tracy

Devin Singletary was limited in practice all week with his groin injury, and his status is still up in the air. It’s looking likely that Tracy will be the primary back this weekend with Singletary banged up. Tracy ran the ball very well last week, and will go against a Bengals defense giving up the 6th most rushing yards and a rushing TD per game to RBs.

Desperate Start Antonio Gibson

Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out, so Gibson is in line to be the guy for New England on Sunday. Gibson has been efficient all year, and he should be relatively involved in the receiving game, as well. A lot of unknowns with Drake Maye behind center, and the matchup against Houston isn’t great. In his case though, you’re chasing the volume, which is usually a good strategy.

Start Bucky Irving

Rachaad White is listed as doubtful, so it’s the Bucky show this week. He’s capable in both the run and receiving game, and the Saints are giving up the 10th highest yards/carry to RBs. Bucky himself is 5th in yards/carry among 36 qualifying RBs.

Desperate Start Tank Bigsby

Travis Etienne is off the injury report, so this backfield is a bit of a crapshoot this week. Etienne will likely have the higher floor due to his receiving role, but Bigsby has a chance to be have another big game if he’s given opportunity against a Bears defense allowing the 5th most yards/carry to opposing RBs and tied for the 2nd most rushing TDs allowed/game. Bigbsy leads all RBs (min 30 carries) in yards/carry through five weeks.

Start D.J. Moore

You’re probably starting him, I just wanted to confirm that you are. The Jaguars are giving up the most fantasy points to perimeter WRs, which includes allowing the 2nd most receiving yards to WRs, the most catches of 20+ yards, and are tied for the most catches of 40+ yards given up. Moore has a high ceiling this week.

Don’t Bench Brian Thomas Jr.

I know, the matchup looks tough on paper against Chicago. My gut and probably yours too says: Stay away. But I can’t bench BTJ. Yes, Chicago is not allowing a ton of fantasy points to WRs, but they do run some of the highest rates of single high safety coverage, and Thomas has just been eating that coverage alive - he’s 4th in yards/route run among qualifying WRs against single high - so it’s really tough to bench him. He’s the WR9 on the year, and he’s my WR19 on the week.

Don’t Bench Josh Downs

Apparently Michael Pittman is playing now. Even with Pittman in the lineup since Downs’ return, he’s averaged a 30% target share over those three weeks. He’s probably a better start with Joe Flacco, but Richardson provided Downs with a catchable throw on 80% of his targets in Week 3… we all just remember the one he sailed over his head… I definitely do. The Titans are a tough matchup on paper, but Downs eats against two-high safety coverage (0.39 yards/route run, 2.45 yards/route run), and the Titans run it at the 7th highest rate in the NFL. He’s a low-end WR2 for me.

Don’t Bench Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks disappointed last week, but we have two weeks in a row now with 25% target share from Jordan Love. My guess is that if Christian Watson plays, he’ll be limited based on his practice status this week. The Packers have one of the highest implied totals on the week, they’re at home, and Arizona has the 4th worst DVOA against the pass this season. Going back to the well with Wicks this week.

Desperate Start Calvin Ridley

This one makes me nervous, as Ridley has had one good fantasy week so far. The matchup against the Colts make him pretty intriguing if you need some upside. They’re allowing the 5th most receiving yards to WRs, the 7th most fantasy points to WRs, and Ridley’s head coach has been talking him up this week, saying that they have to find ways to get him the ball. I have Ridley ranked as a WR3 this week.