Biggest Questions Ahead of Week 1

Tyler Alexander
Sep 4
9 min read

There's always a handful of questions that we all have heading into the first week of the season that will dictate how the fantasy season will play out. What would a QB panning out or not panning out mean for the rest of the offense? What if an offensive line can't hold up? What if a certain receiver really is the favored target? These are the types of questions that could impact the entire fantasy landscape that will play out - here are a handful of the overlying questions that remain unanswered heading into the 2025 kickoff (and what they could mean):

What if Austin Ekeler Truly Is the Lead RB in Washington?

After weeks of the beating of the drum for Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt, it came out yesterday that the official Commanders' depth chart would be Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr., and Jacory Croskey-Merritt in that order. Typically, the preseason depth charts offer little insight into what is actually going on in the team buildings, but official depth charts heading into the regular season usually offer pretty reliable insights.

Was the Bill hype train just a smoke screen, or is the depth chart not the real deal? If it is the latter, the draft-day prices for Austin Ekeler and Bill Croskey-Merritt were appropriate. If it is the former, we're looking at what could have been one of the better draft-day values in fantasy in Austin Ekeler.

Ekeler was a mid-9th round pick on ADP (RB38) but is coming off a season where he was the RB30 in PPG and posted eight games of 10+ points despite sharing a backfield with Brian Robinson Jr., who registered over 200 touches and 8 TDs in his own right.

What could a lead role (or even a 1A-type of role) mean for Ekeler? Well, it could mean the world. In 2021 and 2022, Ekeler finished as the overall RB2 and RB1, respectively. In 2023, he was the RB21 in PPG (and the RB26 on the season in points). Last year, he was SECOND among top-36 RBs (behind only Jahmyr Gibbs) in fantasy points per touch at 1.181 - ahead of other top-10 finishers in the stat like De'Von Achane, James Cook, Bucky Irving, and Derrick Henry. Simple math says that more touches, at that efficiency, would mean amazing things. Even regression in the per-touch efficiency would be more than offset by an increase in workload if Ekeler can see even a decent chunk of Brian Robinson's vacated workload.

And that brings us back to the greater question... What if Austin Ekeler Truly is the Lead RB in Washington? If he is, we're looking at a likely top-25 RB this season.

Ultimately, it will come down to how confident you are in the Commanders' coaching staff being truthful in their ordering of the depth chart. If you think Austin Ekeler is truly the RB1 (or even a 1A) in the Commanders' offense, you need to pull the trigger before Week 1 to try and acquire him at would be a discount. If you don't think Ekeler is the number 1 (or at least Croskey-Merritt isn't far behind him in the pecking order), you should be testing the waters to see if the trade price has plummeted on Croskey-Merritt in your league amid him being listed 4th on the depth chart.

What if Aaron Rodgers Still Has It?

It seems like everyone is quick to forget that Aaron Rodgers is coming off a QB15 finish for fantasy and is just two years removed from coming off back-to-back league MVPs. By no means am I saying we're going to see the version of Rodgers that won MVPs, but let's not act like he was necessarily bad last season, going for over 4,000 yards and 28 TDs to 11 INTs, even despite one of the worst supporting casts in football.

He does get an improvement in that regard. Pittsburgh has a comparable offensive line to that of New York (potentially a bit better). The WR corps is pretty much identical in nature to what he had with the Jets: one definitive WR1 and then a whole lot of nothing (or at least nothing proven). The big difference is the TEs - arguably the worst group in the NFL last season with New York to likely the best duo in the NFL in Pittsburgh between Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith. If Rodgers can be even comparable to his 2024 self, he's very much in a position where he could be a reliable plug-and-play matchup-based fantasy option.

But that's not the big impact... If Rodgers does still have it, the one to really watch out for is D.K. Metcalf.

Rodgers has a pretty lengthy history of dialing in on one WR and making them hyper-productive. From Donald Driver to Greg Jennings, Jennings to Jordy Nelson, Nelson to Davante Adams, Adams to Garrett Wilson, and then Wilson to Davante Adams (again) - Rodgers has a proven track record of making his WR1 very effective in fantasy lineups.

And it really feels like people haven't been talking about what he did last year in this regard. He helped facilitate TWO top-12 finishes at the WR position (Wilson and Adams), but it was really a tale of two seasons for each of those two WRs because of Rodgers' hyper-fixation on his WR1. Through the first 8 weeks, it was Garrett Wilson who was Rodgers' WR1. In those first eight weeks, Wilson was the WR6 in fantasy, had the most targets in the NFL, and had a 29.8% target share. Then the switch happened, and Davante Adams took over the role as Rodgers' WR1. From that moment on, Adams was the WR4 in fantasy, had the 2nd-most targets in the NFL, and had a 32.3% target share.

This abrupt change in who Rodgers was focusing on changed the entire perception around those two WRs' seasons for fantasy. Now, what happens if you combine the two, looking at the entire season of "Aaron Rodgers' WR1"? That total would be 183 targets, 111 catches, 1343 yards, 9 TDs, and the WR4 finish in fantasy. Change your perception a bit of Metcalf with a lack of other WRs in Pittsburgh?

If history repeats itself and Rodgers continues to focus in on one WR, it'll be a happy season for Metcalf owners. Ultimately, it comes down to whether Rodgers can be even a semi-productive version of his former self. If he's anything more than a shell of his former self, it's wheels up for Metcalf this year. If not, it's going to be another ugly season for the Steelers' offense as a whole. We'll have a good indicator of which way it's going based on the first week.

What if the Bengals' or Cowboys' Defenses Are as Bad as Advertised?

If the Bengals' starting defense's struggles against opposing backups were any indicator of their upcoming season, it may be a long season for the Cincinnati Bengals organization, but what would a bottom-5 (or even potentially, a bottom-3) defense mean for fantasy?

Well, we already saw what a defense tied for 7th-most points allowed meant for the Bengals' offense:

Joe Burrow: QB4 in points
Chase Brown: RB10 in points (RB7 after Week 3)
Ja'Marr Chase: WR1 in points
Tee Higgins: WR6 in PPG

The Bengals were already 1st in passing yards, 1st in passing TDs, and 2nd in passing attempts - all three figures that likely get replicated (or very close to that) if their defense is anywhere near as bad as last season... And that's not even mentioning the possibility of them taking a step back. I'm all in on the Bengals' passing attack this season, though only Burrow and Higgins may be attainable via trade.

Now, the Cowboys are another story. Expectations weren't low for most of the offseason, seeing as they were set to come into the season with a fully healthy Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons - the former of which missed all of 2024 and the latter of which missed major chunks of the season.

Fast forward one week prior to kickoff, and the Cowboys deal Parsons to the Packers - completely transforming the perception of the Dallas defense. Over the last four years, Dallas was the best defense in the NFL in EPA with Parsons on the field, yet it ranked as the 2nd-worst defense in EPA without him on the field. His presence on the field and his impact on the game script are undeniable.

Now, they did acquire Kenny Clark to help fix a run defense that had allowed the most rushing TDs, the 3rd-most rushing YPG, and the 4th-most rushing yards last season. They almost certainly will be better in that regard defensively, but the consensus opinion remains that Dallas will be a bottom-half (potentially even worse) defense this season as a whole, especially when they draw the Eagles twice, the Commanders twice, the entire NFC North, the Chargers, and the Chiefs on their schedule this season. It's going to be a gauntlet for the Cowboys' defense, especially now that they're without arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.

That means they're going to be playing catch-up. And with likely the worst RB corps in the NFL (Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Jaydon Blue), it's "welcome back" to the gun-slinger version of Dak Prescott. We've seen him be wildly productive for fantasy in the past, even finishing as the QB3 as recently as 2023. A poor defense once again would mean that type of production is well within the realm of possibilities, especially with the Cowboys boasting a receiving corps headlined by CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson.

Can Caleb Williams Take the Next Step?

We're just a year removed from Caleb Williams being drafted as a top-12 QB for fantasy with sky-high expectations, even as a rookie, with what was then touted as 'the best situation ever' for a rookie QB, featuring a receiving corps of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet.

Somehow, that situation appears to have improved with another year of development for Rome Odunze, the replacement of Allen with rookie 2nd rounder Luther Burden III, and the drafting of 1st round TE Colston Loveland. The receiving corps seems as good, if not better, than it was this time last year. Perhaps the bigger point of note is the Bears' new Head Coach and play-caller: Ben Johnson, the mastermind behind the Lions' explosive offense over the last several years.

But the biggest thing that many haven't questioned is: Can Caleb Williams Take the Next Step? And if so, what does that mean?

He was the QB16 on the season last year, leaving a sour taste in the mouths of those who drafted him, but he did show flashes of potential. The rushing utilization was specifically of note, tallying the 7th-most rushing yards among QBs with 489.

A step forward, even simply via either the receiving corps improvement or the coaching, would mean Williams moving into the QB1 territory, but what if he, as a quarterback, has taken the next step in development? After all, it's not a far-fetched idea to believe that what was one of the highest-touted QB prospects can take a step forward in maturity over his first full offseason in the NFL. Could a top-5 finish be on the horizon? Possibly.

What Would Even a Mediocre Receiving Corps Mean for the Patriots?

Drake Maye was a middle-of-the-pack type of QB as a rookie, ranking as the QB16 between Weeks 7 and 17 (when he was a healthy starter) - nothing crazy in either the positive or negative direction, but that came with one of the worst receiving corps in the league.

The 2025 offseason saw the Patriots heavily invest in that area to try and provide support for their franchise QB, bringing in free agent WR Stefon Diggs, drafting promising rookie WR Kyle Williams (who has exploded in training camp), and drafting the best pass-catching back in this draft class in TreVeyon Henderson.

Maye was already one of the best rushing QBs in the league, ranking 6th among QBs in rushing yards per game despite just SEVEN designed runs (rushing attempts, minus kneeldowns and scrambles) in 2024. For reference, Maye beat out Josh Allen in rushing YPG, but Allen had FIFTY designed runs last year. Patriots OC, Josh McDaniels, has already stated that the team will indeed have designed runs planned for Maye this season, setting the sophomore QB up for major improvements from a fantasy perspective.

But what if the Patriots no longer have arguably the worst receiving corps? That fantasy improvement is likely going to happen purely off of rushing production alone, but then factor in any improvement in the receiving game, and the sky is the limit for the former 3rd overall pick. I've already got Maye stashed as my backup QB in multiple leagues, which is the price you're going to have to pay for him - at least for now. If you believe that the Pats' WR group won't be 32nd of 32 again, try to make a move for him as a backup. He's a low-risk, potential top-5 upside investment for fantasy ,and the window likely closes once the season starts, especially with a rather favorable start to the season against the Raiders and the Dolphins.