Breakout WR Primer 2024 Edition

A lot of our data is based around Dwain McFarland's awesome work over at Fantasy Life. Make sure to check him and Fantasy Life out.

When looking for potential WR1 breakouts, here's what we're basically looking for:

• Previous WR2 or WR3 finishes

• The other data points that can have some correlation are previous seasons' PFF Grades, yards/route run, and targets/route run, even if that player didn't have a previous WR2 or WR3 finish

Since 2011, WR1 thresholds for those data points have been:

• PFF Receiving Grade of 85

• Yards/route run of 2.28

• Targets/route run of 25%

WR2 thresholds have been:

• PFF Receiving Grade of 73.8

• Yards/route run of 1.97

• Targets/route run of 22%

WR3 thresholds have been:

• PFF Receiving Grade of 71.5

• Yards/route run of 1.74

• Targets/route run of 21%

The Big Dogs - Legit 2024 WR1 Potential

Michael Pittman

Pittman has finished as a fantasy WR2 each of the last two seasons - one high-end WR2 and one low-end WR2 season, both with less than ideal QB situations. Pittman saw a 26% target share from Anthony Richardson last year. The quality of the targets were up and down - a whopping 89% of on-target balls from Richardson in his full-game in Week 1, but 25% when he returned from a concussion in Week 4.

Regardless, Pittman's 2023 numbers - 29% target share (8th), 27% TPRR (9th), 2.04 YPRR (17th), and PFF Receiving Grade of 80 (19th) are all indicative of WR1 and WR2 finishes.

Brandon Aiyuk

If you recall last off-season, I said that Aiyuk had a 1400-yard season in him. He ended with 1342, so I wasn't too far off. I will say, however, that this has shades of the Jaylen Waddle season from two years ago. In 2022, Waddle had 75 catches for 1356 yards and 8 TDs. An insane 18.1 yards/reception - regression was due. Unless Aiyuk's 101 targets goes way up next year, I'd also expect a regression. His season was insanely similar - 75/1342/7 which resulted in 17.9 yards/reception. He's been a 13, 14.6, 12.5 YPR guy over the previous three seasons.

The reason why he's included here is because a) he can go to a different team or b) he gets more targets. This is very similar to the Stefon Diggs situation from several years ago in Minnesota.

Aiyuk's 92.3 PFF grade and insane 3.01 YPRR screams WR1, but the concern that relates to what I just mentioned was his 21% TPRR, which is more correlated to a fantasy WR3. Similar to Pittman, he's also had two WR2 finishes each of the last two seasons - one high-end, one low-end.

If the targets go up a bit for Aiyuk, he's an every-week WR1.

Nico Collins

Everything from the 2023 season screams future fantasy WR1 for Collins. High-end WR2 finish last year, 27% TPRR (WR1, 7th), 90.6 PFF Receiving Grade (WR1, 6th), 3.10 YPRR (WR1, 2nd).

He's tied to a very exciting young QB in CJ Stroud who has shown to be accurate and is not afraid to take the deep shots downfield. If Stroud takes another step forward, we could see Collins push into the high-end WR1 territory.

I'm a big fan of Tank Dell as well, and I think he's going to push a narrative of being in the WR1 conversation himself based on his 23% TPRR, WR2 finish, and 83.3 PFF Receiving grade. If you look at these numbers, we're looking at two WRs we should be betting on going into 2024. If I had to pick one though, it's Collins based on his entire body of work last season, as well as his build as a WR.

Chris Olave

We were hoping for that fantasy WR1 season from Olave this season. Go check out our dynasty buys page to learn more about Olave's season, what went wrong, and what could've went better. In short, he's still a stud, and there's a good chance hits a WR1 season very soon - hopefully in 2024.

He had a WR2 finish this past season and a WR3 finish in his rookie year. We're good there. 25% TPRR last year, 26% TPRR in his rookie year. 2.07 YPRR last year, 2.42 in his rookie year. 82.9 PFF receiving grade each year. What am I saying? That he is literally hitting WR1 and high-end WR2 metrics the entire way through. Keep buying the dip.

Rashee Rice

I did not see this season coming for Rice, but pair him with Patrick Mahomes + give him the role in the middle of the field like they masterfully did, and we have an extremely productive result. He finished as a WR3, but let's be real - once he got his route participation up to full-time numbers in Week 12, the numbers were drastically different.

Weeks 1 to 11 - 45% route participation

• 13% target share

• 23% TPRR

• Overall WR49 FPPG

Weeks 12 to 17 - 79% route participation

• 27% target share

• 28% targets/route run

• Overall WR7 FPPG

2.39 YPRR for the season is WR1-worthy, and he was just a rookie. Am I little worried that a bonafide perimeter WR can mess things up a bit for him? Possibly, but we typically see target earners continue to earn. Also, he did all that while Travis Kelce was still earning 26% TPRR and 26% target share. Rice checks all the boxes to be a legit fantasy breakout WR1 for the entirety of next year.

Garrett Wilson

We almost had it. We almost that WR1 year from Wilson last year if Aaron Rodgers stayed healthy. Instead, he saw some of the worst QB play we'll ever see. He needs a medal for still being able to rack up 95 catches for 1042 yards. He's going to get his QB this season, will likely get a 27%+ target share and be an every-week fantasy WR1.

He brought in a 30% target share this past season (4th in the NFL), 24% TPRR, but only 1.55 YPRR given his situation. Yes, I'm acting as a Garrett Wilson apologist. At least he meets 3 of the 4 requirements, given his 73.5 PFF receiving grade and WR3 finishes the past two seasons.

Could be next up - Likely WR2

George Pickens

His season might have gone unnoticed since it was so inconsistent, but Pickens a) finished as a WR3, b) finished with a 76.3 PFF receiving grade, and c) finished the year with a 2.11 yards/route run, which is extremely solid and actually turned out to be 14th in the NFL among WRs with 100+ targets. He might be near the top of this tier, although his QB situation will likely determine his 2024 destiny.

Drake London

Will it finally happen for a WR we all know just needs a QB? He's definitely a breakout candidate, but he needs that QB. New OC Zac Robinson comes from a good offensive coaching tree, so the hope is that the QB is the only missing piece. He missed the WR3 cutoff because of it.

But looking at the other correlating data, 78.9 and 83.2 PFF receiving grades the last two years, 1.87 and 2.07 YPRR, 22% TPRR and 27% TPRR, we're looking at someone who is missing that one piece to open up that WR1 ceiling we all know he has.

Jayden Reed

Reed was a borderline fantasy WR2 last year - he finished as the WR25. Rookie finishes went Puka, Tank, Reed, Rashee, Zay, Jordan Addison. With an up and coming QB in Jordan Love who can take another step forward, Reed can become the guy in that passing offense. However, I do think they can use a true WR1 - and it's possible that guy is in this NFL Draft class. If that happens, Reed can take a backseat, but still be somewhat productive - especially if he remains active in the run game.

His 23% TPRR, 2.05 YPRR, and a PFF receiving grade of 76 are all WR2 numbers, so if he doesn't get much competition next year, he could take a step forward.

Don't sleep on Dontayvion Wicks either; The combination of his 77.8 receiving grade, 20% TPRR, and 2.05 YPRR as a rookie all scream untapped upside. He could be someone you started as an every-week WR3 next year.

Zay Flowers

Flowers has a good chance of being a WR2 next season after a very solid rookie year. His 20% TPRR and 1.64 YPRR didn't quite make the cut as a WR3 benchmark, but he did in fact finish as a WR3 last year, and had a WR-worthy 73.9 PFF receiving grade. Let's see if Baltimore adds another target earner in this year's draft.

Demario Douglas

Douglas is a nice cheap buy in dynasty. 23% TPRR, 75.6 PFF receiving grade, and 2.04 YPRR - as a rookie. Those are fantasy WR2 numbers right there. Don't sleep, this dude is a good route runner and was extremely efficient last year. Don't be surprised if he's in your lineup every week next season with whoever the Patriots end up drafting at QB.