Drake Maye & The Patriots' Passing Game Preview

Drake Maye, in an offense without high level weapons and in an unproven offensive scheme, averaged 18.7 fantasy points in his 9 healthy starts - that was on pace to be the overall QB9 in fantasy. He was 13th among all qualifying QBs in accuracy and 11th in catchable ball rate. He was a rookie.

On top of that, he gave you 37 rushing yards per game last year – without any designed rushes built into the offense for him. This cannot be overstated. Alex Van Pelt gave this man a 3% designed rush rate! How he saw what Maye was able to do in North Carolina with his legs when he scrambled last year and didn’t give him more designed rushes is beyond me…. 3%? He gave you 37 rushing yards per game regardless - and you know what? Only Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels had more rushing yards per game than Drake Maye last year, and all of them were above a 18% designed rush rate. That’s the delta you should expect to see this year.

Why should we expect it? Because Cam Newton was coached by Josh McDaniels in 2020 - he gave him a whopping 26% designed run rate that year, which was easily #1 in the NFL among QBs - more than Lamar, more than Josh Allen. McDaniels is going to unlock that part of Maye’s game - period.

And then you look at the receiving core - Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams on the outside, Demario Douglas hopefully taking that slot role, which has been a big part of McDaniels’ schemes over the years - there’s even more reason to be optimistic. Targeting that slot WR - and Drake Maye actually was already locking in to Douglas last year in his starts; 23% target share, 24% targets per route run – is a staple of the McDaniels system. Douglas could be a high floor flex guy in PPR.

Now, I do think Stefon Diggs is going to be the alpha target earner here - he’s already participating in minicamp, and I know it’s tough to trust a 31 year old WR coming off a torn ACL… but because it’s a clean ACL tear and he’s already back, with a couple of months before Week 1, I think I’m MORE than happy to draft him at his ridiculously low ADP of WR44. Yes, he’s had some offseason drama, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to affect his status with the team at this point.

25% targets per route run last year for Diggs when he was competing with Nico Collins - that ranked 21 of 91 qualifying WRs. 1.97 YPRR, ranked 32 of 91 WRs, 7th in 1st downs per route run among 91 WRs - 22nd in fantasy points/route run. Like, he was pretty good last year - he’s not in his prime, but McDaniels will find a way to use him and get the most out of him and I would be very surprised if he’s not the clear alpha WR there earning a 25%+ target share this year. He’s going way too low in drafts - 7th round is kinda ridiculous.

I do think Kyle Williams is an intriguing rookie - I’ll be taking my shots on him as the WR58 off the board - he’s someone who is a good route runner, has a good release package, can separate against man coverage, and could play the X receiver role on this offense is asked to. We’ll see if he beats out guys like Kendrick Bourne, but if he does, he can make a fantasy impact as soon as Year 1, and can be the WR2 in terms of target share on this team. Apparently he’s already making noise in OTAs and minicamp.