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Moves I'm Making Ahead of Week 5

BUY WR Drake London, ATL

With London, you want to get ahead of the quarterback change because there’s definitely going to be enough cautious optimism around him when it happens that whoever has him isn’t going to be willing to move him. You’ll make an offer and they’ll say “I think I want to hold onto him just this one more week and see what Taylor Heinicke can do.” At that point, you’ve already lost the game.

The fact that the NFC South is competitive only puts more cracks in the thin ice Desmond Ridder is standing on, so there’s the chance we could see Heinicke as early as Week 6. They’re playing the Texans this week, and they’ve handled pretty much every matchup so far that’s been thrown at them. Say the QB change happens then - that would give London a responsible decision maker at QB with matchups against the Commanders and Titans over a 3-week span into Week 8, who are allowing the 7th and 6th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year.

Now, Taylor Heinicke would be a step in the right direction, but he wouldn’t solve all of the utilization problems London has right now. That’s on Arthur Smith. There’s no reason Jonnu Smith should be getting an 18% target share, but he is. But this is a receiver that’s seen between 6 and 8 targets in each of the past three weeks, and if the quality of those targets could climb just a little if Heinicke would step in, he’d be able to return nicely on an investment that should be cheap right now.


I know the immediate takeaway from this past week has been to sell Fields because of the excellent matchup against the Broncos, but I’m going to play devil’s advocate here and help you imagine for a second what holding him could look like.

He’s actually been relatively serviceable this season and he finally has a performance he can build on moving forward. That didn’t happen through the first three weeks of the year. It only stings as bad as it does to see him underperform because we drafted him so high this season, but he hasn’t gone full Daniel Jones on us and thrown up a six bomb in the game log.

I do think you should definitely be fielding offers for him and using him in negotiations, especially if you can move up a few pegs in value at QB. Targeting guys like Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy would make sense to me if you want to add security with some upside vs the volatility of Fields. But looking ahead, things don’t look all that bad for Fields – he’s got FOUR STRAIGHT matchups against teams currently ranking inside the top-10 for the most points allowed to QBs this season - the Commanders, Vikings, Raiders, and Chargers. Imagine he gets things going in the ground game - could we see a mid-season breakout like we did last year?


You’d be lying if you said you weren’t the slightest bit disappointed with Ceedee Lamb’s start to 2023, right? He’s got just one finish inside the Top-10 so far, and the rest of the games he’s averaged 12 points per game. Now, he also hasn’t let any of his managers down, so there’s a chance you’ll immediately be denied when you check on his price. But it’s worth a shot given that he’s had just four catches in three of his four games this year.

Lamb has been quiet because the Cowboys haven’t been in game scripts where they’ve needed to pass the ball a lot, but that’s about to change starting this week. Over their next four games, they’re facing the Niners, the Chargers, the Rams, and the Eagles. All of these games, at the very least, are going to have neutral game scripts. Lamb’s utilization doesn’t jump off the stat sheet right now - 23% target share isn’t dominating by any means, but that has a chance to change for the better in the future. Just check in with the person in your league who has Lamb and see if you can get him at a discount.

SELL WR Romeo Doubs, GB

This feels like taking the low-hanging fruit here because Christian Watson’s role is only going to increase as time goes on, but it’s the truth. Doubs put up a season-high 38% target share and 41% air yards share coincidentally in Watson’s first game of the season, but that was with Watson on the field for just 48% of routes. As Watson is ramped up these next few weeks, Doubs’ workload presumably will decrease - not to an insignificant level, but enough that saying he’s reached peak value on the year in Week 4 wouldn’t be a crazy statement.

At this point, you can leverage the relative mystery that’s hanging around in the Packers offense; last week it was Doubs as Jordan Love’s go-to, but two weeks before it was Jayden Reed. There’s a chance that Doubs and Watson are both solid fantasy wide receivers and neither takes over as the WR1. But there’s only one receiver in the room that can dominate target share once he’s healthy, and that’s Watson. Not to mention that Aaron Jones is only getting healthier and he’ll be mixed in on passing downs - he saw a 15% target share back in Week 1.

Doubs has been leading the Packers in utilization more often than not these first four weeks, but that’s not likely to continue on a regular basis - maximize his value and move him for a receiver like Drake London.


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