Veteran Values in Dynasty - Buy, Sell, or Hold?

It's not always easy to gage whether a veteran is a buy, a sell, or a win now piece. How much longer they can be a legit fantasy contributor?

Christian McCaffrey - Hold/Sell

If I'm in a win-now window, I'm continuing to hold CMC despite him going into his age-28 season. The RB cliff hits hard, but there are some outs for CMC to continue doing his thing; the first, he'll continue to get peppered in the receiving game even if he slows down in the run game. The second is that he'll be propped up by his offense, and he'll continue to get plenty of goal line opportunities. If I'm in the middle or not in contention, there is no doubt I'd try and sell CMC for a king's ransom, and at least get a high rookie pick in this year's draft class. Don't sleep on trying to tack on some early 2nd rounders to any offers for CMC because we're in a deep WR class this year. CMC's value will not get higher at any point moving forward, but he's still efficient; Top-3 in YAC/att, Top-7 in MTF/att,

Derrick Henry - Sell

Henry isn't going for much, but I'm perfectly fine getting an early or mid rookie 2nd for him if possible. Or you can add a little bit to him to try and upgrade with a win now team. Even if I'm win now, I'm selling; I'm not sure the upside is there anymore with Henry. He's already 30 years old and way past the 1500-carry threshold. If no one bites for a 2nd rounder or higher, just hold. He's still showing some semblance of himself; he's still Top-6 in YAC/att, and 33% of his rushing yards last year came on 15+ yard runs, which is only behind CMC and Breece Hall. He's the definition of the exception to the rule when it comes to RBs, and there's a chance his value is a little higher to win-now teams during the season if he gets off to a good start; either that helps your win now team, or he becomes more attractive to someone else in your league.

Raheem Mostert - Sell

I get upset when people don’t agree with this one. And I’m including him here because more people disagree with this one than I thought. I get riding Derrick Henry ‘til the wheels fall off (I’m selling him too if I can), but this is Mostert. Last year was an outlier season, and it’s our responsibility to recognize these types of season, especially considering this was Mostert’s peak year; a peak year for a RB at age 31 has happened only 4 times before him since 2000.

At the ripe age of 31, he had a 1000-yard 18 TD season. The last time a 31-year old RB had 10+ rusing TDs in a season was Thomas Jones (14) for the Jets in 2009. The fantasy RB3 in FPPG. Got you to the fantasy playoffs. Good memories if you had him. Sell him now before he turns into a pumpkin. Sell him for whatever you can. Find that competing team that needs RBs; they will be the only team willing to buy.

He’s turning 32 before the NFL Draft. The only 32-year old RBs since 2000 who have had 1000+ yard seasons were Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Ricky Williams, and Emmitt Smith. Don’t you dare put Mostert in that category, especially when they have De’Von Achane ready to take the reins next season. If you’re asking why anything would change in Miami, you’re betting against history, you’re betting against Achane’s ability, and you’re missing an opportunity to sell high.

When you’re selling Mostert, make sure to use all of his efficiency metrics to make your trade partner believe that Mostert still has it and will continue to do his thing.

Rushing yards over expectation/attempt: 0.61 (8th)

Missed tackles forced/attempt: 0.25 (6th)

Yards after contact/attempt: 3.4 (6th)

Saquon Barkley - Buy/Hold

Many will point to the inefficiency of the Giants run game last year, but man, that offensive line might've been the worst in the NFL. Combine that with their QB situation, Barkley had no chance. But believe it or not, he still did what he could given his opportunity. His 0.39 rushing yards over expectation was still in the top 1/3 of the league; for context, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson were at 0.4 and 0.39, respectively. Among RBs with 200+ carries last year, 31.7% of his rushing yards came on 15+ yard runs so that big play ability is still there. The part that's concerning on the efficiency sheet is his yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt, but in context to his situation, I'd lean more towards how well he produced versus expectation.

For example, someone like Rachaad White had a bad offensive line and had very low YAC/att and MTF/att. However, he was on a solid offense and his rush yards over expectation/att was also very low. That's where the bell should ring; I don't think that's the case for Barkley. If he moves to another offense, we could be looking at a much different situation. And don't forget, he's a candidate for 60+ catches, too. I think Saquon has at least one more year in him in his age-27 season, so buy for cheap if you need a RB on a win now team.

Austin Ekeler - Sell/Hold

Ekeler is entering his age-29 season, and I think we did see him take a step back last year. -0.27 rushing yards over expectation isn't what you want to see. YAC/att down near the bottom of the league, MTF/att a little better than Chuba Hubbard (below average) - not encouraging. He definitely left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths last year, and because of it, there might not be much of a market. I'd take a rookie 2nd rounder for him, but if I can't get that, I'd just hold in case he ends up in a good situation and is able not only rack up targets like he's always had. His yards/route run did decline a bit to the middle of the pack, so keep that in mind. The other thing to keep in mind is that his new role on a new team might not include goal line carries, something that has been a huge piece of his fantasy value over the last few seasons.

Nick Chubb - Sell

This one makes me sad, but it’s time. He just had surgery for both his ACL (not a complete tear) and MCL, he’s past the age apex (see articles below), and he’s nearing the 1500-carry threshold (he’s at 1238 now).

The fact that he’s rehabbing this injury coming into his age-28 season doesn’t sit well with me, and I want to get out while I can. You can still get a ton of Chubb, because it’s hard to see him hit that wall because he's… Nick Chubb. I will say that he is made up of the type of stuff that Derrick Henry is made of; I would not be surprised if someone like Chubb is the exception to the rule… but I will also not make those subjective predictions. They only become exceptions after it happens.

Also, Chubb isn’t a pass catcher. There aren’t too many outs for him outside of him dominating in the run game. I think it’s time to collect.

More on RB/WR/TE age cliffs: https://www.upperhandfantasy.com/post/dynasty-age-peaks-and-cliffs-for-each-position.

Aaron Jones - Sell

If you take a look at the Fantasy Life article linked above (Nick Chubb section), you’ll see that it’s rare that there are high-performing RBs past age 28. Aaron Jones turned 29 in December, and instead of being intrigued by his late season and playoff performances, I’d use that to sell him - I mean, look at how much he has in the tank… wink wink.

With AJ Dillon turning into a pumpkin and Aaron Jones getting old, the Packers will likely look to the draft or free agency to bring in another RB. More competition will be a bump in the road for Aaron Jones regardless.

In terms of efficiency, Jones was solid last year, so make sure to use that to your advantage. Among the 49 RBs with 100+ carries last year, he ranked 10th in yards after contact/attempt and 26th in missed tackles forced/attempt. In terms of rushing yards over expectation/attempt, he was middle of the pack.

I realize that in more advanced dynasty circles, Jones is not an easy sell, and he might be a throw-in. But I rather get some value out of Jones while I can, even if it means I can move on and get a slightly better return on a trade involving more long term fantasy assets.

Alvin Kamara - Sell

Kamara has reached his last days as a high-end fantasy RB. He's going into his age-29 season, and Kendre Miller is awaiting. Not only that, he showed career low efficiency this past season. There were only three players worse than Kamara in rushing yards over expectation last year - Dameon Pierce, Kareem Hunt, and Jamaal Williams... not pretty.

There were only three players worse in missed tackles forced/attempt, and three players worse in yards after contact/attempt. He's still a plus in the receiving game, but at this age, there will likely be a change at the top in terms of the run game.

The good news is that Kamara had such a good fantasy season that he's still holding onto some value in dynasty.

Slow start for Miller, especially with the injuries, but once he got his opportunity in Week 18, he looked very good - 13 carries for 73 yards and a TD. He was a very good prospect, and I can see him taking opportunity away from Kamara this year. He's a buy, by the way. You can see all of our buys and sells on our dynasty trade chart.

And no, it won't be Jamaal Williams. He consistently ranked last or next to last in every category we care about, including dead last in rushing yards over expectation.

Tyreek Hill - Hold/Buy

I'm riding this one until the wheels fall off. I don't see any signs of Tyreek slowing down, and he's in the perfect offense to continue putting you over the top winning you any given week. If anyone in your league is worried about him retiring early or him hitting age 30, go buy him. It won't be cheap, but do you what you have to do win your league. 3.82 yards/route run last year is absolutely bananas. The next highest was Nico Collins at 3.10. There's no way I'm selling a WR who is coming off a 1800-yard receiving season, even if you tell me that he's at his peak right now and is 30 years old. RB - different story. WR - longer shelf life, less of a sharp cliff.

Keenan Allen - Sell

For years, I’ve been defending Keenan Allen against the injury-prone tag. He never deserved it. His last two seasons, though, he’s played 10 of 17 and 13 of 17 - is he now injury prone? No, he’s old. He’s turning 32 years old the week of the NFL Draft.

There’s no doubt that he still got something left in the tank; when he was on the field, he killed it. Overall fantasy WR3 in PPR PPG last season. When he came back from his hamstring injury in Week 11, he was the overall WR3 in PPR PPG the rest of the way.

Use this to your advantage and sell while you can. And to top it off, Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to continue to sling it when you’re up or in neutral situations. And then you add Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator and play caller? This will not be a pass-first offense, despite Justin Herbert behind center.

Move on from Allen now while you have a chance - before the overall pass volume goes down and his age really catches up to him.

DJ Moore - Hold/Buy

Patience is a virtue with DJ Moore. Any time I talked about buying DJ Moore in dynasty, I was usually met with resistance. But you combine his age with the fact that he had three 1000 yard seasons before the age of 25 - that's a clear reason to hold and buy. He then finally has his true high-end breakout season with 96 catches, 1364 yards and 8 TDs - all career highs, with a QB who most aren't buying as a legitimate passer of the football in the NFL.

He was Top-10 in yards/reception, TDs, receiving yards, yards after the catch/reception, contested catch %, missed tackles forced, passer rating when targeted, and PFF receiving grade. His 2.31 yards/route run was 12th in the NFL among qualifying WRs.

He'll now likely get Caleb Williams as his QB, and we could see Moore attached to him for the next several years. He's still under contract for the next two seasons. He's going into his age-27 season, which means he potentially has 4+ seasons left in him. I'm not selling, and I'm buying if the price is right. His 80.2 receiving yards/game was right up to par with what he was doing at age 22 and 23 - 78.3 and 79.5 receiving yards/game. This isn't new for Moore, so I'd continue to depend on him and target him in dynasty.

Davante Adams - Sell

I believe Adams still has what it takes to be an elite WR in the NFL, but the Raiders QB situation is what worries me. There will likely be a rookie at the help, and regardless of who it is, the chance he is good enough to make Adams a solid WR1 is probably low. Let's not look at CJ Stroud from last year and assume there will be a rookie QB who will do that this year, even if they are better prospects. It takes time for rookie QBs to get a hold of the NFL game, and there's a good chance Adams won't be able to reach that potential. Even if I'm in win now mode, I think this is still a situation where I'd move on from an elite WR. Do you really want to depend on a rookie QB under former Bears OC Luke Getsy? I don't. Now, is there a chance he gets traded? Yes, but their GM has already stated that they have no plans on trading him, and cited a potential rookie QB needing a guy like Adams to progress.

Stefon Diggs - Hold

I don't think the Diggs situation is one where he fell off mid-season. Before OC Ken Dorsey was fired, Diggs was on pace for 124 catches for 1476 yards and 12 TDs, which was on par with his 2022 season. His 2.43 yards/route run during that span was 6th in the NFL, only behind Tyreek, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Puka, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The rest of the way with Joe Brady as OC, he was on pace for 83 catches and 765 yards (17 game pace). The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. What we do know is that Joe Brady was retained as OC, so if the run game is working, it's possible we see Diggs phased out at times. The upside might be limited just a bit. I don't think there was a sharp dropoff with Diggs' ability just yet, so I wouldn't be panic selling. The only reason why I'm not buying right now is because the upside might not be worth it; if I can buy Diggs for a rookie 2nd rounder for a win now team, I'm in, but that's the max price I'm willing to pay right now.