Week 1 Starts & Sits

Welcome back, fantasy football! Week 1 is typically one of the most straightforward weeks in terms of setting your lineup, usually following the "start who you drafted earlier" premise with a few caveats. Excluding the obvious answers (i.e., Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, etc.), here's a handful of the notable starts, sits, and everything in between based on the players' matchups and situation(s):

Must-Starts:

James Conner (at NO)

There may not be a better matchup on paper this week than Conner vs the Saints defense, which gave up quite a bit last season to opposing RBs:

• 7th-most PPG to RBs

• 6th-most rushing yards to RBs

• T-Most rushing TDs to RBs

Throw in that the Saints offense took a major step back this offseason and that the Cardinals are heavy favorites in this game (-6.5), and this is lining up to be a very favorable game script for Conner. I've got him as a fringe top-10 RB this week.

Jerry Jeudy (vs CIN)

Even though the Bengals' defense was rather decent against opposing WRs last season (8th-fewest PPG to opposing WRs), this is a locked-and-loaded matchup for Jeudy that should likely result in a high-scoring affair, given the game has the 2nd-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the week.

With a volume passer in Flacco, who has already proven that he can make fantasy WRs extremely productive when he's on the field, Jeudy should get plenty of looks (and stat-pad in PPR formats) with the Browns likely trailing for most of the game.

Not a terrible WR2 option, but definitely an elite FLEX play this week.

Drake Maye (vs LV)

There are very few QBs I'm starting over Drake Maye this week. He's coming into the season off of a rookie season where he finished as a top-12 QB in half of his starts, sees a notably improved receiving corps, and will reportedly start getting designed runs.

The game itself may not be high-scoring (43.5-point Over/Under), but the fantasy matchup appears very favorable for Maye, featuring an opponent in Las Vegas that allowed the 3rd-most PPG to opposing QBs last year. I'm looking at him as a low-end QB1 with the very realistic potential to finish as a top-5 QB this week, especially if he is utilized in the rushing attack in the way the coaching staff has talked him up this offseason.

---

Optimistic Starts:

Emeka Egbuka (at ATL)

Atlanta did get torched last season, allowing the most PPG to opposing WRs, and star corner AJ Terrell will be matched up with Mike Evans, making a game with the 2nd-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the week that much mmore appealing for Egbuka, especially with the likes of Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out and Cade Otton having just returned to practice.

Fire up the rookie as a solid FLEX option in his debut.

Jaylen Waddle (at IND)

Just a tad lower on Waddle than Jeudy, though the matchup appears narrowly better (on paper) with Indy allowing slightly above-average (15th) PPG to opposing WRs last year and the Over/Under sitting at a healthy 46.5 points.

Throw in that Tua has thrown for an average of 319 yards per game in season-openers throughout his career, I'm looking for Waddle to be a healthy double-digit target-earner (if not, very close) to open the season, making him a solid FLEX play or, in desperate situations, a fringe WR2 option.

---

Temper Expectations:

D.K. Metcalf (at NYJ)

I really like Metcalf this season, but I'm a bit hesitant about him opening up the season, particularly against the Jets.

Not only will he be shadowed by Sauce Gardner, in a matchup with the Jets' defense that allowed the 3rd-fewest PPG to opposing WRs last year, but the game as a whole between Pittsburgh and New York should be a slug-fest. The Jets' plan has already been made known: they will play low-risk, ground-and-pound football. That perfectly aligns with Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith's ideal game plan. Those two things do not pair well for a high-scoring fantasy game, and it shows in the lowest Over/Under on the week (38.5).

If you have to, play him, but greatly temper expectations for this week. I've got him as a mid-level FLEX.

Kyler Murray (at NO)

The Saints are going to be BAD this season, and while that bodes well in Week 1 for James Conner, that doesn't bode as well for Kyler Murray's Week 1 prospects.

QBs matching up against teams that are supposed to be terrible offensively are a gamble for fantasy. If they can be productive and score TDs early, they are lights-out, but if they don't get the TDs early and often, they risk falling by the wayside in terms of game script.

New Orleans is a middle-of-the-pack matchup for opposing QBs for a reason. I still have Murray as a low-end/fringe-QB1. If you need to play him, do so, but be aware that this could be a hit-or-miss matchup for Murray.

Austin Ekeler (vs NYG)

It is really hard to get a read on the Commanders' backfield - it was the Bill Croskey-Merritt hype train all preseason, then he was listed as the RB4 on the depth chart, and now he's reportedly taking second-string reps in practice. Supposedly, it'll be Ekeler as the lead RB and receiving back with Chris Rodriguez getting the short-yardage/goal-line work, and then Jacory Croskey-Merritt sprinkling in as a change-of-pace back.

It's a roll of the dice what you're getting in terms of workload split in the Commanders' backfield this week, especially with a matchup against the Giants that is amazing on paper (2nd-most PPG to RBs) but may offer a game script that favors a committee-based approach rather than one that favors Ekeler.

I like Ekeler as a value option overall this season, but I am very cautiously starting him where I must as a FLEX, at least until I can see what the backfield will look like.

---

On the Fence:

Justin Fields (vs PIT)

On one hand, the Jets' gameplan has been announced that it's going to be run-heavy, including Justin Fields getting extensive rushing work in an attempt to reduce turnover potential. That's a positive for Fields' fantasy prospects. It's also a "revenge game" that typically tend to churn out big games.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been a terrible matchup for opposing QBs seemingly every year for the last half-decade, allowing the 5th-fewest PPG to opposing QBs last year. The game also features the lowest Over/Under (38.5) of Week 1, so not much scoring is anticipated.

It's a roll of the dice what you're going to get out of Fields this week.

Calvin Ridley (at DEN)

It's a very conflicting season opener for Ridley. All offseason, the drum has been beat for Ridley as the go-to target for the gun-slinging rookie Cam Ward - the camp reports and what we did see from the two in the preseason looked good, but the matchup against Denver to open the year is rough.

Ridley draws shutdown corner Pat Surtain to start the season. That's less than ideal, but Tennessee's lackluster defense alongside the fact that they are 8.5-point underdogs should mean that Cam Ward is throwing the ball 30+ times on Sunday. Logic says that a lack of Titans' weapons means at least 20% of the targets should be going to Ridley.

He could volume his way to a semi-productive day. He could also get shut down entirely by Pat Surtain, who has done the same to even better WRs in the past. I'm very hesitantly starting him, only in leagues where it's a must.

---

Sit'Em:

Jared Goff (at GB)

So let's recap what Jared Goff is going up against in the season opener:

• A Packers' defense that allowed the 6th-fewest PPG to QBs last year, and now adds Micah Parsons

• A rare low-20's (22.5) implied team total for Detroit

• First game without Ben Johnson calling the plays

There are very few situations that I'd recommend starting Goff in.

Nick Chubb (at LAR)

Even with a middle-of-the-pack matchup against the Rams, with a very depleted receiving corps that should emphasize the running game more, and no Joe Mixon in the picture, I find it very difficult to start Chubb.

You just flat out do not know what you're going to get. There have been reports inside camp that Chubb looks like he got 'a step back' after missing almost a year-and-a-half to a gruesome leg injury. There were also reports that Chubb looked like he had lost his explosiveness. Which do you believe?

I'd bet he gets a dozen or so carries in the opener. What he does with those is another story. It very easily could be a case of Chubb looking like the Nick Chubb of old, but that's not a gamble I'm taking in the opener. For now, he'll be on my bench.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs NYG)

You just flat out don't know what Bill Croskey-Merritt is going to bring to the table this year, and especially this week.

He's 4th on the depth chart, but has been getting 2nd-team work in practice after a red-hot preseason.

It seems just as likely that he'll get < 5 touches in the opener as he would get 10-15. Really, nobody knows what the Commanders' backfield will look like, and without the proven production of someone like Ekeler (see above), it is very difficult to justify starting a late-round rookie that isn't in line to "start".

Hold onto him, but wait a few weeks before contemplating him going into your lineup.