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Week 9 Trade Bait

Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get. If you don't know what the value of your players is, head over to our Trade Charts!


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you - these are our top 5 trade bait pieces based on the "buy-low, sell-high" approach with players highlighted likely to see a decrease in value in the near future due to difficult matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc:



1. Gus Edwards - RB, Baltimore Ravens


The situation for Edwards is certainly improving, taking a stronghold on the Ravens' backfield over Justice Hill with a 52% snap share and 72% workload share in Week 8 while Edwards has commanded 11+ touches in six straight games (and 14+ touches in four of his last five).


However, Edwards just now became productive in the last two weeks, exceeding the 12+ point threshold for the first time all season and posting 7+ points for the first time since Week 2 in Week 7. He's gone for back-to-back 21+ point performances where he found the endzone once in Week 7 and twice in Week 8. That's the common denominator in his startable games - each game he's scored a TD, he's posted 12+ points, while he's failed to hit 7 points in any game where he didn't score.


I'd strongly recommend moving him after back-to-back 20+ point, 1+ TD games, especially with the likelihood that such run-heavy game scripts aren't present as they have been the last two weeks. This will almost undoubtedly be Edwards' peak value this season. I'd sell high for a more stable RB2/FLEX option.

 

2. George Kittle - TE, San Francisco 49ers


The entire Tight End position has been wildly inconsistent outside the select few at the top (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, LaPorta) and Kittle has been no exception, posting 6 or fewer points in half his games (including two games under 2 points), while tallying 55% of his points in just two games. An underlying theme among his games of success vs those of struggle: Deebo Samuel.


In 6 games with Deebo Samuel:

  • 3 catches, 19 yards, 0 TDs - 4.9 points

  • 3 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs - 6.0 points

  • 7 catches, 90 yards, 0 TDs - 16.0 points

  • 1 catch, 9 yards, 0 TDs - 1.9 points

  • 3 catches, 67 yards, 3 TDs - 27.7 points

  • 1 catch, 1 yard, 0 TDs - 1.1 points

In 2 games without Deebo Samuel:

  • 5 catches, 78 yards, 0 TDs - 13.0 points

  • 9 catches, 149 yards, 0 TDs - 23.9 points

I worry about what the return of Deebo Samuel after the Week 9 bye will mean for Kittle, especially in terms of week-to-week volume. If the first half of the season is any indicator, I'd look to move Kittle off of solid back-to-back games in Samuel's absence, especially given the unappealing playoff schedule (6th-hardest playoff SOS) for San Francisco. I'm looking to package Kittle with an RB/WR to try to trade up for a top-end, consistent, TE1 (see those listed above).

 

3. Zack Moss - RB, Indianapolis Colts


Moss continues to stay afloat in the stat box with Taylor in the lineup, posting 14+ points for the third time in four weeks since the Colts' star RB returned from the PUP List.


However, it's slowly been transitioning into the backfield that we were anticipating with the split becoming more and more in favor of Taylor. In the four games with Taylor active, the snap share has gone from 80-15 (Moss) in Week 5 to 50-42 (Moss) in Week 6 to 50-50 (even) in Week 7 to finally favoring Taylor 61-39 in Week 8.


What's even more concerning is how severely dependent Moss' production has become on finding the endzone since Taylor has returned. In those four games with Taylor, Moss has seen 33% of his points come from TDs. This was on display this past week when an otherwise horrific performance (11-33-0, 4.3 points) was saved by an uncharacteristically long TD run to make it 12-74-1, 14.4 points).


This offense isn't transitioning in a way for Moss to be a serviceable fantasy option outside of incredible matchups (and even then, remaining a TD-dependent option). I am seeing if I can entice anyone to take him at face value from his impressive stat sheet at face value in an attempt to either upgrade or find a more secure RB3 option.

 

4. Jordan Addison - WR, Minnesota Vikings


What's good for Hockenson (see my trade targets article) is bad for Addison. The loss of Kirk Cousins and the transition towards a more checkdown-oriented QB in Joshua Dobbs is likely a major blow to the fantasy prospects for Addison, taking him from WR1 territory without Justin Jefferson in the lineup to likely mid-WR2 value until Jefferson returns.


That brings me to my next concern: the Justin Jefferson situation. Nobody knows when Jefferson will return in 2023 with a timetable of 4-6 weeks approaching the 4-week mark (eligible to return in Week 10). Should Jefferson return next week, that effectively demotes Addison back to WR3 relevancy without Cousins.


Throw in a very difficult schedule upcoming for Addison (4th-hardest remaining SOS, 6th-hardest playoff SOS), and holding Addison is not necessarily a gamble I want to take, especially given what I can likely get for him after his 21-point performance in Week 8.

 

5. CeeDee Lamb - WR, Dallas Cowboys


Lamb's a conflicting sell. On one hand, you're likely not going to get better value out of him on the trade market than you will after his monster 12-catch, 170-yard, 2-TD, 41-point performance in Week 8, but on the other hand, Dallas has one of the easiest upcoming schedules for WRs (2nd-easiest SOS over next 4, easiest remaining SOS).


He had already established himself as a highly consistent option with 10+ points in all but one game in 2023 and double-digit points in 21 of his last 23 games, but his post-bye success serves as the peak each of the last two years (38 points following a bye in 2022, 41 points following a bye in 2023).


Lamb is a luxury 'sell high' in an attempt to trade up for a high-WR1, but not a must-sell by any means. Only sell if you're upgrading and maxing out your trade value for Lamb.

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