top of page

Articles

Zach's Week 9 Buys & Sells

Writer's picture: Zach RizzutoZach Rizzuto


BUY WR Keenan Allen, LAC


Allen could have had a bigger game against the Bears on Sunday night, but the Chargers ran away with it like they were supposed to and didn’t need to push the ball downfield. The good news for you if you’re looking to buy Keenan Allen: his production has cooled all the way down from the beginning of the season, but his target share hasn’t – at all. When you split up Allen’s eight games played this season into the first four and the last four, he has the same target share in both of those time spans: 29% target share in weeks 1-4, and another 29% in weeks 5-8. That’s with Austin Ekeler having been back these past three weeks, and with Mike Williams playing in the first three games of the season.


Using those same splits when we talk about production, we find that Allen was averaging 25.8 PPR points per game through Weeks 1-4 - which placed him as the WR2 in that time – but in Weeks 5-8, he’s down to just 15.3 points per game, which places him as the WR31 in that span. We’ve said this many times before, but I’ll say it again – Keenan Allen is Justin Herbert’s favorite target, and this production dip we’re seeing will correct itself soon enough. Austin Ekeler just had a big game, too - he had almost 100 yards receiving and a touchdown against the Bears, so you can take advantage of anyone that opens up the game log, sees two straight quiet games for Keenan Allen, and starts to panic when they see that Allen’s quiet game came with a side order of a big game from Ekeler.


He might not be cheap to go after, but I think if you could move a guy like Jordan Addison for him in some sort of package deal, you’d be in pretty good shape.


SELL WR Devonta Smith, PHI


This isn’t an indictment on him as a receiver - it’s just that A.J. Brown is dominating. No other No. 2 receiver would be able to compete with the production Brown has had, but guess what: Devonta Smith just gifted you a sell window with 99 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles had a great matchup against the Commanders in Week 9 and both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith were able to come through - but that’s not going to be the case every week.


Since Week 3, A.J. Brown has a 32% target share to Devonta Smith’s 20%, a 48% air yards share to Smith’s 26% air yards share, and he’s averaging 27 points per game to Devonta Smith’s 10%. For comparison’s sake, last year A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith were earning 28% and 27% target shares, respectively. Smith has finished outside the weekly top-15 in 6 of his eight games in 2023, and there’s going to be more of where that came from.


Look ahead to his schedule in the next four weeks, too – the Eagles have Dallas in Week 9, a bye in Week 10, and then back to back matchups against Kansas City and Buffalo. Dallas and Kansas City are both top-5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers this season, and moving a player before their bye is never a bad thing. The odds of Smith having another game like he had against the Commanders over the next few weeks is pretty low, so take advantage of this selling opportunity before you’re stuck again with Smith putting up single digits on a weekly basis.

  • Instagram
  • Youtube
  • Spotify
  • apple+podcast+logo+transparent_edited
  • TikTok
  • Twitter
Copyright © 2024 Upper Hand Fantasy. All Rights Reserved.
bottom of page