It’s hard not to get caught up in camp hype - but don’t let that cause you to forget about these proven value veterans!
Keenan Allen - WR19 - 35.9
Now, his ADP did move up since earlier this offseason – in June, he was going off the board as the WR23 on Underdog, now he’s going off the board as the WR19. That’s the 3/4 turn, so you might be able to snag him in the 4th round of your home league draft, but that’s still a great value even comparatively to his original ADP.
The main thing haters talk about is the injuries. Yes, he missed half the year last year… but before that, he missed 3 games over the previous 5 seasons. He played in 96% of his games before this past season. He’s 31, but he should have one more season in him, and if you’re gonna bet on a season, it’s with Kellen Moore coming in - the Chargers could be the most pass-heavy team in the league, and Keenan Allen is likely still the #1 target in that offense.
And again, last year, when he came back from his injury, he put up elite fantasy production. #2 in targets behind Justin Jefferson, 5th in receiving yards, 6th in receiving TDs. 18.8 PPR fantasy points/game, WR3 during that span. As the WR19 off the board, you’re most likely getting a high-end WR2, with a potential to finish as a low-end WR1 in PPR.
If I was more bullish on Quentin Johnston as a prospect, maybe I’d expect Keenan Allen to not have as many targets – but I’m not sure the ball will be spread out that much. Mike Williams was never a target earner - it’s Keenan Allen and Ekeler, with a little Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston sprinkled in - and I think it’s really Mike who gets hurt with Johnston coming in, because Keenan Allen is still that good.
Diontae Johnson - WR29 - 56.2
Target earning is a skill, and Diontae Johnson has earned those targets because he’s one of the best route runners and separators in the NFL. 144, 169, and 147 targets over the last three seasons tells you that this dude is a PPR beast… but not only that, the fact that he scored 0 TDs last year is a GREAT thing for anyone who drafts him this year, because those TDs are going to come back in bunches. It’s called regression to the mean.
Since 2000, no WR who has had more than 140 targets has had zero TDs in a season. I mentioned this before, but if he scored at his average TD rate for his career last year, he would’ve been the WR22 in PPR points/game rather than the WR42 in PPR points/game he was at last year. This is not normal, this was an anomaly - take advantage, because you don’t get the WR1 target share type of WRs this late in drafts.
As the WR31 off the board in the 6th round, I’m expecting a consistent PPR WR2 for you this season at a low-end WR3 price tag.