Amon-Ra St Brown only finished behind Cooper Kupp since Week 13, whether we’re counting Week 18 or not, and whether it’s overall fantasy points or on a per-game basis. He was straight-up winning people their fantasy championships.
Here were his game logs starting in Week 13 up until the end of the NFL season:
That’s pretty to look it.
Enjoy his breakout, and enjoy the championship he brought you. Now, let’s be honest when we’re projecting forward.
His breakout started in Week 13, which was the first week without D’Andre Swift. The breakout continued when T.J. Hockenson was lost for the season after Week 13. St. Brown’s full-time role actually started in Week 10, where he started to run a route on more than 90% of dropbacks. Hockenson and Swift combined for a 41% target share.
St. Brown’s competition for targets during this span was Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds. Now, it takes talent to do what St. Brown did, and he proved that he was a capable receiver. And I do believe he can thrive in his slot role. But, we have to be careful in how we’re evaluating him in dynasty and where we draft him in redraft leagues in 2022.
What happens when TJ Hockenson and DeAndre Swift are healthy?
What happens when they add a much-needed legitimate perimeter WR?
What happens if the Lions move away from Jared Goff? Will their next QB favor anyone else?
To suggest that St. Brown would just go away would be disingenuous. But, we have to be careful not to overvalue him, or be scared to sell in dynasty.
St. Brown killed it towards the end of the year but was 6th among 10 rookies with at least 50 targets in yards/route run.
If St. Brown was a legit separator on the outside, I would be viewing him much more positively moving forward, but his insane success might have been more due to the lack of competition for targets and his role in slot, where he’s able to avoid tough coverage.
According to Matt Harmon’s mid-season rookie Reception Perception charting, St. Brown didn’t have great success against man, zone, or press. The slot role is where he kind of needs to be to succeed. When you look at Cooper Kupp, it’s a similar concept. However, he has Sean McVay to support him and that role. We don’t know that St. Brown has that support.
Dan Campbell has called offensive plays since Week 10, but a new offensive coordinator might take over in 2021 after Detroit let go of Anthony Lynn.
I’m looking forward to seeing Harmon’s post-season charting on St. Brown to see if there were any drastic improvements in the second half of the year when it came to his separation skills.