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Faraz's Favorite Underdog Pick'Ems

Trevor Lawrence OVER 26.5 passing TDs

I think many of us, including myself, are expecting Lawrence to that jump to where he shows everyone why he was not only the #1 overall pick a couple of years ago, but why he was one of the best QBs prospects coming out.

In the first 8 games of last year, he threw 1.3 TDs per game with a 10:6 TD:INT ratio. In the 2nd half, or in the last 9 games of the season, he threw 15:2 TD:INT ratio. He also averaged 22 more yards passing per game. He looked like a different player down the stretch.

Here’s the thing, this pass TD line is set at 26.5 TDs. He threw for 25 TDs last year. Without Calvin Ridley. Add Calvin Ridley, he’s in the 2nd year of Doug Pederson’s system, he still has Christian Kirk, still has Zay Jones, and still has Evan Engram - who he formed a late season connection with. He has the supporting cast, and he himself can take a step forward into that elite QB category this year.


Jordan Addison UNDER 825.5 receiving yards

Since 2010, only 2 WRs to be taken after the Top-20 in the first round have reached that mark. Justin Jefferson, and Kelvin Benjamin. If there was a 17th game, maybe Calvin Ridley, maybe DeAndre Hopkins, maybe DJ Moore - Brandon Aiyuk missed a few games his rookie year, he definitely would’ve hit it. But the hit rate would still be below 20%. And is Addison going to get that as the #2? Is he the #2 target, or is TJ Hockenson the #2 target?

If we only look at Round 1 WRs since 2010, picked anywhere, the guys who have hit that were mainly the primary passing option on their offense, and were very high level prospects. I love Addison, I think he’s a great prospect, but I don’t think he’s in the category of guys like Drake London, DeVonta Smith, and Ceedee Lamb – guys who didn’t even hit 1000 yards their rookie year, albeit in 16 games.


Mark Andrews OVER 800.5 receiving yards

I’m staying with the Ravens on this one with Mark Andrews. How is his line only at 800 receiving yards? It might be because of how seemingly crowded this receiving core is, but I think the pecking order is pretty determined at this point, and that is Andrews is that dude - he’s eating first. If there was an alpha WR on this roster right now, sure… but there isn’t one at this point, especially because Bateman’s still dealing with the Lisfranc injury.

Andrews hit 800 yards last year in only 15 games - and Lamar wasn’t even healthy. He hit this mark 3 of the last 4 seasons, and now he’s going to be the first option in a more pass-friendly system.


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