Week 2 Starts & Sits

It was quite the opening week to the season - stars disappointing and anticipated breakouts producing. What is smoke, and what is an indicator of things to come this year? Excluding the obvious answers (i.e., Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, etc.), here's a handful of the notable starts, sits, and everything in between based on the players' matchups and situation(s):

Must-Starts:

Justin Fields (vs BUF)

After exploding for 29.5 points in the season opener (QB2), there really shouldn't be much question about playing Justin Fields heading into Week 2, especially when he draws a matchup against a Bills defense that got shredded by Lamar Jackson (QB4) and the Ravens' offense for 40 points.

Lock Fields in as a top-5 start for the week.

James Conner (vs CAR)

It wasn't a pretty Week 1 for Conner, whose otherwise poor performance (12-39-0 on the ground, 4 catches for 5 yards) was salvaged by a receiving TD. However, a very favorable Week 2 matchup looks opportunistic for Conner to bounce back from an underwhelming performance (albeit still the RB16 on the week).

Conner draws a matchup vs Carolina, who got torched last season by RBs, allowing the most PPG to opposing RBs and it wasn't particularly close. For context, the gap between the Panthers and the next-closest (NYG) PPG allowed to RBs was bigger than the gap between the 2nd-highest and the 14th-highest teams. And that trend appears to have continued in Week 1 of 2025, allowing the most rushing yards (173) to RBs in Week 1, including having allowed Travis Etienne to run for over 140 yards en route to an RB6 finish on the week.

Fire up Conner with extreme confidence this week.

Breece Hall (vs BUF)

Despite the narrative all offseason (especially late into the offseason) being that it would be a 1A/1B situation for the Jets' backfield, Week 1 was anything but that. Hall was the definitive workhorse for the Jets in the opener, tallying over 72% of the backfield touches and 58% of the snaps while he ran all over the Steelers' defense for 5.6 YPC.

Week 2 draws a perhaps more enticing matchup as he faces off against a Bills defense that got picked apart by Derrick Henry, who ran for nearly 170 yards and 2 TDs last week.

One would anticipate Hall getting a similar workload to last week (21 touches), at least in terms of overall volume, though it may be a bit more reception-oriented as the Jets may be playing from behind more than they did in the opener.

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Optimistic Starts:

Zach Charbonnet (at PIT)

To everyone's surprise, it was Charbonnet, not Kenneth Walker, who took on both the majority of the work (58% of snaps, 55% of carries) and the high-quality opportunities (3-to-0 redzone touches) of the Seahawks' backfield.

Week 2 looks a bit conflicting for Charbonnet, despite the favorable Week 1. The Seahawks-Steelers matchup features the lowest projected Over/Under (40) on the week and has Seattle with the 3rd-lowest implied team total (18.5), but that comes after the Jets-Steelers matchup featuring comparable metrics, then a shootout occurring (including Breece Hall going crazy).

I'm still very optimistic about Charbonnet, especially as Kenneth Walker continues to get up to speed after having missed most of camp due to a foot issue. Until proven otherwise, it looks like this is a 1A/1B situation with Charbonnet being the 1A (plus getting the valuable work). Feel relatively comfortable with him in your FLEX or as a very low-end RB2.

Ricky Pearsall (at NO)

It isn't very often that a WR would have very little proven production, be strattled with a backup QB, and have their game with the 2nd-lowest Over/Under (40.5) on the week, and I still say they're a quality start, but here's one of those times.

Both George Kittle and Jauan Jennings exited Week 1 with injuries, leaving an already depleted receiving corps that much thinner. Kittle is out at least a month while Jauan Jennings is day-to-day, but registered a DNP on Wednesday, leaving serious doubt as to his availability for Week 2. It'll be Ricky Pearsall by necessity in the short-term as it's hard to envision the 49ers continue to give McCaffrey 10+ targets after being adamant about reducing his workload this season.

The greater concern from most seems to be the absence of Brock Purdy, who is out 2-5 weeks with turf toe, and Mac Jones starting in his place. That's not of significant concern for me, especially after what Mac Jones did for Brian Thomas Jr. last year. Many seem to forget that Brian Thomas was a fringe-WR1 with Trevor Lawrence in 2024, ranking as the WR11 in points and the WR21 in PPG with Lawrence at QB, but then he took off once Mac Jones was in, placing as the WR7 in points and the WR8 in PPG in the 8 games with Jones.

Jones can at least get a WR by, but he has elevated WRs when he hasn't been limited by a Matt Patricia offense. I'm comfortable with Pearsall as a FLEX this week.

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Temper Expectations:

Marquise Brown (vs PHI)

It was initially anticipated that Hollywood Brown would be a borderline FLEX option for the first part of the season with Rashee Rice suspended, but that expectation grew tenfold in the beginning seconds of the Chiefs' season opener with Xavier Worthy taking a massive hit from teammate Travis Kelce on a crossing route, forcing him out for the next few weeks with a shoulder injury. That forced Brown into the lead receiving role for the Chiefs, where he drew an NFL-leading 16 targets, 10 catches, and 3 redzone targets. Unfortunately, that volume didn't turn into much, amounting to just 10 catches for 99 yards (and 0 TDs).

Now that was seemingly with Brown being thrust into the "Xavier Worthy role" mid-game, especially seeing as most of Brown's volume was around (or behind) the line of scrimmage, compared to his typical deep-threat role. With a full week of preparation for a Worthy-less offense, I wouldn't anticipate as much volume for Brown in the game script. If that's the case, it could be a shaky week for Brown based on the matchup.

Philly allowed the 6th-fewest PPG to opposing WRs and did a solid job at shutting down the Cowboys' lethal receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb (7-110-0, WR14) and George Pickens (3-30-0, WR62), even with a lessened pass rush without Jalen Carter. That's what scares me a bit for Brown this week - if he doesn't get the 10+ targets, there's a strong chance he is a bust this week. Volume is everything for him.

I still like him as a very low-end WR2 (preferable FLEX/WR3), but I'm very cautious.

D'Andre Swift (at DET)

The volume was fantastic for D'Andre Swift to open up the season, getting all 17 of the Bears' RB carries, 22 of the 23 RB opportunities, 20 of the 21 RB touches, and an 81% snap share. The efficiency was once again the problem - Swift totaled just 65 yards overall and just 3.1 YPC on the ground.

His Week 2 matchup against Detroit is a bit concerning as well, seeing as Swift struggled against his former team both times he faced them in 2024 (9.4 points, 8.3 points), and that while the Lions' defense got picked apart most of last year and all of Week 1, they have actually been solid against opposing RBs. Last week, they limited Josh Jacobs to just 3.5 YPC and an RB18 finish despite 20 touches and a TD. Meanwhile, last season was a similar story, allowing the 9th-fewest PPG to opposing RBs.

The volume should once again be fantastic, perhaps with more involvement in the receiving game, as one would anticipate a higher-scoring affair than either the Bears or Lions' openers, but the question about efficiency still remains.

I don't mind Swift as my FLEX, but it's a bit difficult to trust him with greater expectations, especially since we still have yet to see whether he or rookie Kyle Monangai will get the goal-line opportunities. He's a play in most situations due to the volume, but one to temper your expectations quite a bit on.

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On the Fence:

Dylan Sampson (at BAL)

Nobody on the Browns was effective running the ball in Week 1, even against a middle-of-the-pack run defense from 2024 in the Bengals. It started off as a pretty even split between Ford and Sampson, with Raheim Sanders getting action as a short-yardage/goal-line back, but it quickly turned into a "just give the ball to Sampson" backfield, which ended up totaling 20 touches in his debut.

He, like the rest of the Browns offense, couldn't run effectively, totaling just 29 yards on 12 carries, but Sampson shined in the receiving game, bringing in all EIGHT of his targets for 64 yards. I'd anticipated a bit more efficiency on the ground against Baltimore, who cumulatively allowed 4.4 YPC to the Bills' RBs.

Could we very easily see Sampson with the same (or similar) workload in the air this week? Absolutely - the game script and James Cook's involvement in the air (5 catches) last week suggests so.

Could we also see Sampson regress in workload and/or efficiency overall? Absolutely - it's unclear if rookie Quinshon Judkins will play, and even if he doesn't, Ford was the starter (and led 41-33 in snaps), plus that's not even factoring in the Ravens' defense that allowed the 4th-fewest PPG to RBs last year.

It's a true toss-up this week for Sampson. I don't mind him as a FLEX play if you don't have a better option, but it truly seems 50/50 what you're getting from him.

Michael Pittman Jr. (vs DEN)

Week 1 was a blast from the past for Michael Pittman, going 6-for-80 and a TD off 8 targets as the Daniel Jones-led Colts offense exploded. For what it's worth, I don't have any concerns about Jones' ability to sustain a productive offense (or facilitate productive fantasy receivers), nor do I have concerns about Pittman's ability to sustain production (as we've seen him do this season-long in the past).

However, my reservations for Week 2 lie strictly in the matchup: he draws Patrick Surtain.

Denver allowed bottom-12 PPG to WRs last season, and Pat Surtain, in particular, limited star WRs on a weekly basis last year. Week 1 saw Calvin Ridley limited by Surtain, going just 4-for-27 yards.

I'm very much encouraged by Pittman's Week 1 performance (and involvement), but I'm a bit hesitant this week. He's a fringe FLEX option in my eyes.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt & Austin Ekeler (at GB)

I'm very suspect of the Washington Commanders' backfield for fantasy - it seems like it's going to be a week-by-week ordeal where one back gets the work if it's a run-oriented game script and the other gets it if it's a pass-oriented game script.

Last week, it was a run-oriented script, resulting in Jacory Croskey-Merritt taking the bulk of the touches (10-to-9). This week features Washington as 3.5-point road underdogs in what forecasts to be a high-scoring affair in Green Bay (2nd-highest Over/Under, 48.5 O/U).

I could easily see one, or even both, being productive RB3/FLEX options this week, but I am so incredibly hesitant to play either at this point between an uncertain workload split and an extremely ugly matchup against a Packers' defense that allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards (44) on the week despite facing the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

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Sit'Em:

Isiah Pacheco (vs PHI)

2024 left a lot of concern for those drafting Isiah Pacheco after seeing the RB struggle mightily to return to his pre-injury efficiency for the latter portion of the year, ultimately ceding work to Kareem Hunt due to his inefficiencies. The hope was that a full offseason of recovery (and nearly a full year of time since the injury) would allow Pacheco to return to his pre-injury running style. Unfortunately, Week 1 leaves the uncertainty of whether that is coming to fruition.

Pacheco and Hunt were in a dead split for rushing duties, each receiving a mere 5 attempts and neither being effective overall (Pacheco 5-25-0 rushing, 2-3-0 receiving; Hunt 5-16-0 rushing, 2-10-0 receiving). The two getting the same volume was concerning in itself, but what raised another red flag was that it was Pacheco, Hunt, then rookie Brashard Smith in that order on the opening series, before the Chargers started to take a commanding lead. Is this an indicator of the Chiefs' plan? Nobody really knows yet.

With that split and Pacheco's efficiency both remaining unanswered questions, it's a gamble to put Pacheco in lineups against the Eagles, who allowed the 2nd-fewest PPG to RBs last season (you can disregard Javonte Williams' Week 1 success as Jalen Carter was ejected before the first defensive snap).

Kenneth Walker III (at PIT)

My exact reservations about Charbonnet above (lowest projected Over/Under, 3rd-lowest implied team total) remain true about Kenneth Walker, but I am far more hesitant on Walker than I am Charbonnet due to the uncertainty of whether Week 1 was a fluke or not.

On one hand, Walker missed most of camp to a foot injury and hasn't had an opportunity to fully be integrated into Klint Kubiak's offense, but on the other hand, Charbonnet looked excellent in Week 1 to Walker's underwhelming start (after a slow end to 2024). Walker did end with more opportunities (13-to-12) and got the 4th quarter work (5 carries to Charbonnet's 1), but it was Charbonnet on the field more (57.7% snap share to Walker's 40.4%), on 3rd down, and getting the redzone work (3 RZ touches to Walker's 0). That's all of the valuable work in Charbonnet's favor. Was that just in an attempt to ease Walker in, or is that Charbonnet taking on the 1A role in what was anticipated to be a definitive lead role for Walker?

I really don't want to find out that answer with Walker in my lineup. Unfortunately, many who drafted him don't have better alternatives due to the draft price it took to get Walker, so you may be forced to play him. If you do have an alternative (i.e. Charbonnet), I'd lean that direction, especially in a matchup against a Steelers' defense that got shredded by the athleticism of Breece Hall last week (similar to Charbonnet's style) and was dominant against the power back in Braelon Allen (similar to Walker's style).