Faraz brings us two players that aren’t for the faint of heart, but that also present a world of upside in 2023:
Christian Watson - WR21 - 41.4
Now, Christian Watson is nowhere near the type of prospect that Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson were, and going into this year, it’s likely that Olave and Garrett Wilson both have the potential to be superstar alpha WRs in the NFL… and I don’t think Christian Watson is on that level. But I do think we have to pay attention to what we he does well, and the type of season he had when he got healthy last year.
We don’t know what Jordan Love is yet, but we do know that Aaron Rodgers didn’t necessarily play his best football last year - he actually wasn’t efficient throwing the ball deep - despite that, Christian Watson went on to put up WR1 numbers once he got back from his injuries, and his 2.26 yards/route run mark last year, only behind Chris Olave, is something to we have to pay attention to, because it’s a huge indicator of future success.
Will he have a TD regression? Yes, he will. He can’t sustain the TD rate he had last year, but the target share during that span was there. And earning targets is a skill by the way… at the very least, we know that the big play ability is definitely there. And that's all over the field - deep, intermediate and after the catch, red zone.
And no – I’m not buying the Romeo Doubs hype, by the way, so I think if I miss out on some of the high-end WRs early on, Christian Watson is an upside pick in the 4th round that I’d consider to give me a chance at a high-end WR2. But also understand that his floor is likely in the volatile WR3 range. He’s being drafted kind of in the middle of his range of outcomes as the WR20 right now.
Devon Achane - RB38, 117.6
As of right now, the best RB on the Dolphins is Devon Achane. He’s not going to be a goal-line back, but there is a lot of upside here in Mike McDaniels’ outside zone scheme… think Raheem Mostert on the 49ers when he would pop those long runs again and again. Achane can do that and more.
It also seems like they’re using him as a receiver as well; he got the 3rd round draft capital, but he’s not the biggest back. He did bulk up a bit by the time he got to training camp - he got up to 192 - so that’s good. He’s on a good offense with other playmakers that you have to account for, and because of that he has a higher chance to be more efficient than what he probably would’ve already been.
31-year-old Raheem Mostert isn’t holding him back, and neither is Jeff Wilson, although I do think Wilson will be the goal line back - obviously assuming Dalvin Cook doesn’t sign in Miami. If Cook does, the touches simply won’t be there for Achane, but if he doesn’t, Achane can easily see 15 touches/game on this offense, with some of that coming in the receiving game - and that’s really all this guy needs to be an every-week RB2.
He’s being drafted as the RB39 - that’s just too low. The landing spot was just perfect for him and his skill set. And all the hype around him in OTAs helps, too… it seems like he’s going to be very involved in the offense.