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Faraz's Week 14 Takeaways



The Colts sputter and so does Zack Moss


If you had Zack Moss or picked him up after Jonathan Taylor went down, you were hoping that he would really come through for you - and he returned that confidence in him with two very underwhelming fantasy performances. Before you panic, just know that the volume has been there - 22 opportunities on 94% of snaps in Week 13 and 21 opportunities on 84% of snaps yesterday… just extremely disappointing efficiency in these two games for Moss. 2.15 yards per carry for him isn’t going to cut it… and while the 8 targets were nice to see, you can’t help but wish it amounted to more production. If you’re in the playoffs, it’s almost like you have to start him next week… this type of utilization can lead to a 20-point performance pretty easily.


Michael Pittman was able to have a solid game, right on schedule - 8 for 95 on 11 targets - but Josh Downs only had 3 targets in this one. He ended up going 3 for 32 scoreless yards… Gardner Minshew missed him on a wheel route that would’ve been a TD, and he was wide open on that one… but only 3 targets wasn’t anything close to what I expected. He had an amazing matchup, but instead, Zack Moss ended up with 8 targets, and the TEs combined for 12 targets. By the way, can someone tell me how 4 different tight ends get targets for a single team, and someone like Josh Downs gets 3? Really iffy performance by Gardner Minshew in this one, but I was just too high on Josh Downs… had him as my WR30 this week.

 

The Falcons actually used their top weapons?!?


Drake London showed us exactly what he’s capable of against the Buccaneers: 10 catches for 172 yards. It’s great to see that London is, indeed, capable of this type of performance, but how many people started Drake London this week? He’s been a disappearing act for most of the season, so of course you’re going to have this kind of big game on the bench when people lose faith in him. He has Carolina next week and that’s a tough matchup - he’s probably a WR3, but he’s just tough to trust.


Also, Kyle Pitts ended up scoring - 3 catches for 57 yards on 6 targets with that TD. And newsflash: his against the Bucs was somewhat meaningful. Why? Because in Week 13, his route participation jumped from a consistent 65% route participation or so to 90%, and he ended up with 8 targets against the Jets, and then this week it was at 91%… so we’re now seeing 2 weeks in a row of intentional increased usage for Pitts. Not the best matchup in the world next week against Carolina, but still startable - and has two solid matchups in Weeks 16 and 17. If you were having TE trouble, Pitts is a lot more startable now than he was a couple of weeks ago.

 

Veteran WRs Dominate in the Rain in Baltimore


Remember this guy Cooper Kupp? 8 catches on 10 targets for 115 yards and a TD… he looked eerily similar to the Cooper Kupp that we all know and love. Not really sure what Demarcus Robinson is doing with 10 targets, but I’m gonna carry on assuming that will not continue. But Kupp is heating up at the right time — he and Puka are both getting the target shares and Matthew Stafford is playing very well right now. Look at how he’s looked against two of the best defenses these last two weeks… and now these WRs have Washington next week at home! They’re absolute must-starts for that matchup… and Stafford is 100% in play as well. He’s had three straight big fantasy days and he’s thrown 10 TDs over these last three games.


Zay Flowers and OBJ ended up leading the Ravens with 10 targets apiece, and Isaiah Likely also got it done - 5 for 83 with a TD. But OBJ had that long 46-yard TD and finished with 97 yards and a TD on the day. I mentioned last week that his target share has been creeping up - 23% in this game, but I think the biggest development was his route participation has finally gone up to 60%. According to FantasyLife.com’s free utilization report, it’s the highest it’s been since Week 9, and I think that makes him a little more trustable moving forward. I liked him this week as a high-end flex play, but he just might enter the WR3 conversation in a good matchup against the Jaguars next week. We know that Lamar loves targeting OBJ deep, and coming into Week 14, the Jaguars are allowing the 3rd-highest rate of 40+ yard receiving plays. He’s in heavy consideration for some upside in my lineup in Week 15.

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