BUY RB Jonathan Taylor, IND
I want to start with one of my favorite buys this week, and that’s Jonathan Taylor. I’m not sure the concern that JT does not want to be a Colt anymore is there at the moment. I can’t believe I’m putting this much stock in an IG story, but the fact that he posted him working out in the Colts facility with the Colts logo clearly displayed and him captioning it with ‘Loading’ kinda tells me that he just wants to play and he’s going to play this season out. He should be back in Week 5, he’ll take this backfield over.
Zack Moss - a RB who has never been fantasy relevant for his 3-year career prior to this season - has been awesome for fantasy, averaging the 5th most expected fantasy points/game based on his opportunity. Deon Jackson would’ve ranked 6th per game in expected fantasy points/game based on his Week 1 opportunity with Richardson, and now JT is only going to take things to another level when he’s back. Then you consider that Moss has had the 8th most yards before contact/attempt among the 37 RBs who’ve had at least 25 carries so far this year, which means Taylor will enjoy a similar luxury.
With Anthony Richardson in Week 1, the Colts played at the 3rd fastest pace. This is an underrated aspect for fantasy - more plays mean more fantasy points. Deon Jackson also had a 17% target share in Week 1 according to Fantasy Life Utilization. Fast paced offense, Anthony Richardson looking better than I thought he would early, him willing to check it down if he has to - all reasons why I’m back in.
BUY WR Jakobi Meyers, LV
I have a WR I want to buy, and I’m kinda buying high on him - and that’s Jakobi Meyers. Jimmy G is in the concussion protocol, so maybe we wait a week, but he should be on your radar. He’s WR5 in fantasy points/game right now, but he’s also WR6 in expected fantasy points, so he’s not necessarily overproducing on the opportunity - he’s doing what good players do with the opportunity they’re given.
The target distribution in two games with both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers has been extremely tight. According to the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, In Weeks 1 and 2 when these guys played together, they had a combined 73% target share in each of those weeks - that’s insane, and that’s exactly what you want to see.
He had a 38% target share in Week 1, 27% in Week 2, and this is not new for Meyers. He’s always been someone who’s demanded a high target share: 22% last year in a dysfunctional offense, 24% in 2021, 23% in 2020… the track record is there, and it looks like he can take a big step forward this year. Obviously, this isn’t something I saw coming, but we know he’s a good player, and he’s being heavily prioritized by the Raiders offense. Even if the offense stinks, this type of target distribution blossoms fantasy points.
SELL RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA
Kenneth Walker is someone I’m fielding offers for. I want to see what’s out there. He just had a 30 point game, he had 59 yards receiving – that’s not going to happen often, and he’s had 4 TDs in the last 2 games. There were a lot of RB carries available for the Seahawks this week, but his snap share is going down, and Zach Charbonnet’s snap share and opportunity is going up. This was not a close-out situation, this looked like the plan coming into this game.
Can Kenneth Walker be a RB2 rest of season? Definitely. Can you get more value back than what he might end up turning into? Yes. And this isn’t about Charbonnet now becoming fantasy relevant - it’s more about Charbonnet taking enough away, including 2 carries inside the 5 so far this year. Charbonnet does look good… he almost had a TD in this game after he truck sticked this dude at the 1 yard line. He also has taken over the passing down duties including the 2 minutes snaps as well, so he does an upgrade.
Walker had 18 carries in this game, but according to Fantasy Life data, his overall rushing share dropped from getting more 70% of the rushing attempts each of the first two weeks to 55% of the rushing attempts in Week 3. One-game sample, but Charbonnet can get worked in even more, especially since he looked pretty good in this game.
This is not a fire sale by any means - get good value back, like a high-end WR2 - like an Olave or a Devonta Smith. And by the way, his fantasy playoff stretch is brutal and the weeks leading up to the fantasy playoffs is brutal - Starting in Week 12 - 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Titans. Not great.